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Iraq: More bombings to come as polls near

Iraq general election to be held on March 7
Baghdad (AFP) Dec 8, 2009 - Iraq's second general election since Saddam Hussein was overthrown will be held on March 7, almost six weeks later than the originally planned date of mid-January, officials said on Tuesday. The announcement came two days after MPs struck a last-minute deal to get the poll back on track, but the news was overshadowed by five massive car bombs in Baghdad that killed 127 people and wounded 448. Months of protracted negotiations over a law governing the vote had thrown arrangements for the election into chaos. The date was agreed after meetings involving the presidency council, made up of President Jalal Talabani and his two deputies, and electoral commission officials.

"There was an agreement to hold the elections on March 6," Talabani's chief of staff Nasser al-Ani told state television. "But another meeting in the afternoon studied the case and decided to postpone it for one day only until March 7. Tomorrow the presidential decree will be issued to ratify the electoral law." Hours earlier, officials had announced that the election would be held on March 6. The election, which will now fall on a Sunday, the first day of the working week in Iraq, is seen as a crucial step towards consolidating Iraq's democracy and securing a complete US military exit by the end of 2011, as planned. It had originally been scheduled for January 16 but was delayed because of disagreements over the electoral law.

The date previously mooted by the United Nations -- February 27 -- clashes with an important Shiite religious ceremony and was ruled out. Under the new electoral law -- hailed by Washington as a "decisive moment for Iraq's democracy" -- the number of MPs will increase from 275 to 325, including three additional ones for provinces in the northern autonomous region of Kurdistan. Of the total, eight seats will be allocated to minorities, including Christians, and seven to smaller parties which win national support but not enough votes to gain representation at provincial level. Kurdish parties previously expressed concern that their allocation in an earlier draft had not risen above that agreed for the last general election in 2005, while predominantly Shiite and Sunni Arab provinces had seen increases. The new law sidestepped a veto that Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Arab, had threatened, and came just minutes before a midnight deadline for him to block the legislation.

Hashemi vetoed a previous version of the law last month, throwing poll preparations into disarray. US diplomats, notably Washington's ambassador in Baghdad Christopher Hill, had pushed MPs to pass the law, seeking to avoid delays to the planned pullout of tens of thousands of American troops in 2010. The United States has 115,000 soldiers in Iraq, but that figure is planned to drop to 50,000 next year as all of its combat troops are pulled out before a complete withdrawal by the end of 2011. The threat of political violence linked to the election is a major concern for the Iraqi government and US military. Similar attacks to those on Tuesday in Baghdad in August and October killed more than 250 people. "We believe that there will be an attempt to conduct more attacks between now and the election," General Ray Odierno, the top US commander in Iraq, said in November. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki called Tuesday's attacks a "cowardly" attempt "to cause chaos... and hinder the election," and said they were deliberately timed following the approval of the new electoral law.
by Staff Writers
Baghdad (UPI) Dec 8, 2009
Tuesday's surge of spectacular car bombings across Baghdad that killed more than 100 people, the third such wave since August, underlines the inadequacies of Iraq's security apparatus and the deep-rooted opposition to the recent shift toward Iranian-friendly Shiite politics.

The hourlong coordinated bombing spree came as Iraq's Presidency Council was expected to announce a date for parliamentary elections.

The violence was clearly intended to undermine the electoral prospects of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite close to Tehran.

In recent months Maliki has consolidated direct control of the various branches of Iraq's 600,000-strong security apparatus, and major security breaches, such as Tuesday's bombings, damage his portrayal of himself as the quintessential Arab strongman.

His government is having to take increasing responsibility for security as the U.S. military withdrawal that began in June continues with unreliable Iraqi forces having to pick up the slack.

Maliki has publicly blamed al-Qaida and the remnants of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party for the multiple bombings, including the suicide attacks against government ministries in Baghdad's heavily guarded "Green Zone" on Aug. 19 and Oct. 25 in which some 280 people perished.

He has yet to produce concrete evidence of this, despite having alleged suspects confessing their links to the successor to the Baath, al-Awda, or The Return, on state television, or his accusations that neighboring Syria provides sanctuary for those who plan the bombings.

Damascus has denied those charges and has recalled its ambassador, as has Maliki. But there is some evidence there are factions within Syria's large intelligence system who are supporting the Baathists because they oppose Iranian domination in Iraq.

At the same time, the move toward a Shiite-dominated political system that marginalizes and frequently murders nationalists of the Sunni minority, the backbone of Saddam's repressive regime, has incensed the Sunnis.

Maliki's refusal to integrate the tens of thousands of Sunnis, collectively known as The Awakening, who abandoned the insurgency and joined the Americans in 2007-08 to fight their erstwhile comrades, into the security forces has sharpened sectarian rivalries even further.

Several of those who led the defections have been killed. Some were clearly the victims of al-Qaida settling old scores, but others were reportedly slain by Maliki's death squads.

Apart from al-Qaida and other insurgents, Maliki is also up against rival Shiites in the planned elections. These had been scheduled for mid-January but have been put back to a date as yet unspecified because of sectarian feuding in Parliament.

These rivals, many of whom were partners in Maliki's coalition government until they broke with him in the summer and formed the Iraqi National Alliance, have as much interest in undercutting his electoral prospects as the insurgents.

Maliki, who has stitched together a broad-based alliance that includes Sunnis as well Shiite tribes from the oil-rich south, is gambling all he has on winning the election and continuing as prime minister.

But, as the bombings show, he has an uphill struggle on his hands. The high-profile bombings in central Baghdad can be expected to continue, even if these attacks are weeks apart.

"The upcoming election offers a powerful forum where insurgent attacks could provide the greatest political damage to the Iraqi government, particularly Maliki's prospects for retaining office," according to analyst Ramzi Mardini of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation think tank.

The intensity of the bombings appears to be escalating. Security analysts expect them to intensify in the weeks ahead. Political assassinations are also expected to increase.

Recent discoveries of large weapons caches in southern Iraq indicate that Shiite militias are stockpiling arms.

According to Iraqi security sources, many bear Iranian manufacturing stamps showing they were produced as late as 2008, following Maliki's Lion's Roar offensive against his Shiite rivals in spring of that year, primarily the forces of firebrand cleric Moqtada Sadr.

These Shiite militias, including Sadr's, are recruiting heavily with an eye to undermining Maliki's electoral prospects.

Iraq's Sunni-dominated Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are also likely to be a factor. None has any great regard for Maliki or his pro-Iranian policies.

Their intelligence agencies, like Syria's, are all operating inside Iraq to curb Iranian influence and support the beleaguered Sunnis.

These regimes "may feel compelled to undermine Maliki's electoral advantages ahead of the parliamentary election," Mardini said, "as his rhetoric and consolidation of power has been of some concern to them lately."

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Iraq general election to be held on March 7
Baghdad (AFP) Dec 8, 2009
Iraq's second general election since Saddam Hussein was overthrown will be held on March 7, almost six weeks later than the originally planned date of mid-January, officials said on Tuesday. The announcement came two days after MPs struck a last-minute deal to get the poll back on track, but the news was overshadowed by five massive car bombs in Baghdad that killed 127 people and wounded 448 ... read more







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