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TERROR WARS
Iraq investigating IS chief's fate after air strikes
by Staff Writers
Baghdad (AFP) Nov 09, 2014


Islamic State winning support, but not allegiance: experts
Paris (AFP) Nov 09, 2014 - While the Islamic State group is rapidly gaining support among jihadists worldwide, only marginal organisations and isolated individuals are formally expressing their allegiance, experts say.

Of the five main Al-Qaeda offshoots -- in Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, the Sahel and Yemen -- none has recognised the authority of IS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who at the end of June proclaimed the establishment of a caliphate straddling Iraq and Syria, with himself as "leader for Muslims everywhere."

"For the moment, those rallying behind Islamic State are on the margins, not at the centre (of the jihadist movement)," said Dominique Thomas, an expert in Islamist groups at the Paris-based School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences.

"They are small groups or marginalised individuals looking for recognition. They are proclaiming their allegiance to show they exist," Thomas told AFP.

The expert cited as an example the declaration of allegiance to IS made in September by the Algerian group Jund al-Khilifa -- or "Soldiers of the Caliphate" -- which hit the headlines by kidnapping and then beheading French hiker Herve Gourdel.

"This is a group that has been in conflict for a long time with (the head of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Abdelmalek) Droukdel," he said.

There are also "personal considerations" at play in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Libya, but "these are not at the moment significant organisations themselves."

Some heavyweight Al-Qaeda groups have voiced support "because it's impossible not to support them when faced with the common enemy of the United States, but support and allegiance are two different things," stressed Thomas.

- 'Split in generations' -

But as IS stays in the headlines amid a battle for the Syrian border town of Kobane under the bombs of a US-led coalition, the leaders of more established jihadist groups are seeing their supporters drawn to the relatively new force.

"Everywhere, commanders are coming under pressure from their supporters to move closer to IS," said Romain Caillet, a researcher on Islamic groups based in Beirut.

"But for the moment they are resisting. There is also without doubt a split in generations: the Al-Qaeda chiefs seem too old, outdated in the eyes of the new generation," added Caillet.

The Islamic State group has targeted young people with propaganda on the web and has made extensive use of social networks like Twitter and Facebook to radicalise.

Jean-Pierre Filiu, a specialist on radical Islam at Sciences Po research institute in Paris, said IS had "definitively dethroned Al-Qaeda as the ultimate reference point for global jihad."

"All the major jihadist groups have voiced support in the face of the bombing campaign by the United State. They haven't however expressed allegiance to Baghdadi because this process of integration would require a 'globalisation' of the confrontation," said Filiu.

Thomas said that the more Western bombs fall on IS and the more the extremist group resists, the more attractive it will be to would-be jihadists.

The Western military action against them has pulled the Islamic groups together and Al-Qaeda in particular has increased its call for togetherness to avoid "fitna" or discord within Islam, said the expert.

Iraq was on Sunday investigating whether Islamic State jihadist group chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in air strikes by US-led coalition warplanes targeting the group's leaders.

The death of the elusive Baghdadi would be a major victory for the coalition of countries carrying out air strikes against IS and providing assistance to Iraqi forces fighting to regain large areas of Iraq that the jihadists have overrun.

The announcement of the strikes came after President Barack Obama unveiled plans to send up to 1,500 more US troops to Iraq to advise and train the country's forces, deepening Washington's commitment to the open-ended war against IS.

A senior Iraqi intelligence official said there was no "accurate information" on whether Baghdadi was killed but that authorities were investigating.

"The information is from unofficial sources and was not confirmed until now, and we are working on that," the official said.

US Central Command, which oversees American forces in the Middle East, on Saturday said that coalition aircraft conducted a "series of air strikes" against "a gathering of (IS) leaders near Mosul".

"We cannot confirm if (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was among those present," said CENTCOM spokesman Patrick Ryder.

The US-led strikes late Friday were a further sign of "the pressure we continue to place on the ISIL terrorist network," he said, using another acronym for the Islamic State group.

The aim was to squeeze the group and ensure it had "increasingly limited freedom to manoeuvre, communicate and command".

- $10 million bounty -

"I can't absolutely confirm that Baghdadi has been killed," General Nicholas Houghton, the chief of staff of the British armed forces, told BBC television on Sunday. "Probably it will take some days to have absolute confirmation."

Washington has offered a $10 million reward for his capture, and some analysts say he is increasingly seen as more powerful than Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The Iraqi government responded Saturday to announcements from the US and other countries that trainers would be sent to the country, saying in a statement that: "This step is a little late, but we welcome it."

The government had requested that members of the international coalition help train and arm its forces, the statement said.

"The coalition agreed on that and four to five Iraqi training camps were selected, and building on that, they have now begun sending the trainers," it said.

The new troops announced by Obama would roughly double the number of American military personnel in the country to about 3,100.

Multiple Iraqi army divisions collapsed in the early days of the jihadist offensive in northern Iraq, leaving major units that need to be reconstituted.

Obama had resisted keeping US troops in Iraq earlier in his term, vowing to end the American presence that began with the 2003 invasion and lasted until 2011.

- Kobane battle kills 1,000 -

The fight to regain ground from IS will take a heavy toll on the predominantly Sunni areas in Iraq that the group now holds.

In Jurf al-Sakhr, an area south of Baghdad that has been retaken from the jihadists, the conflict left houses burned, buildings and roads rigged with bombs and dozens upon dozens of once-soaring palm trees felled.

Highlighting the enormous security challenges Iraq faces, a wave of car bombs struck Shiite-majority areas of Baghdad on Saturday, killing at least 37 people.

In neighbouring Syria, more than 1,000 people, most of them jihadists, have been killed in the battle for the town of Kobane since IS launched an offensive aiming to take it nearly two months ago, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

The Kurdish fighters defending the town have been joined by Syrian rebels who have fought both President Bashar al-Assad's regime and IS, as well as by Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces.

The Observatory also said Sunday that Syrian regime air strikes on a town held by IS killed 21 civilians and wounded 100.

Aircraft dropped seven barrel bombs and other explosives late Saturday on the IS-held town of Al-Bab northeast of the city of Aleppo, it said.

Syrian rebels and local Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra Front also seized the southern of town of Nawa Sunday from troops loyal to Assad after months of intense fighting, the Observatory said.


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