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WAR REPORT
Iraq war debacle haunts US debate on Syria
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Sept 09, 2013


Syria's chemical weapons arsenal
Beirut (AFP) Sept 09, 2013 - Damascus Monday welcomed a Russian initiative to place Syria's decades-old chemical weapons arsenal -- one of the most important in the Middle East -- under international control to avoid air strikes.

President Bashar al-Assad's regime is accused of using chemical weapons in attacks on two rebel-held areas near Damascus that US intelligence and the Syrian opposition charge killed hundreds of people.

On September 1, US Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington had clear intelligence proving sarin gas was used in the August 21 assault by regime forces.

A French intelligence report released on September 2 said there was "massive use of chemical agents" on the day of the attacks in Syria and that only the regime could have been responsible.

The report said Syria "had one of the biggest operational stocks of chemical weapons," including an arsenal of more than 1,000 tonnes comprising sarin and mustard gas and more powerful neurotoxic agents.

It also said Syrian scientists were working on more lethal nerve agents.

The Syrian regime acknowledged for the first time on July 23, 2012, that it had chemical weapons and threatened to use them in case of a Western military intervention, but never against the Syrian population.

One of the few countries not to have signed the Chemical Weapons Convention, Syria began its chemical weapons programme in the 1970s with the help of Egypt and the then Soviet Union.

In March this year, both the government and rebel forces battling to topple the regime each accused the other of using chemical weapons in the more than two-year conflict.

Britain, France and the United States have accused Syrian forces of using chemical weapons against insurgents on several occasions.

Russia, a key ally of Syria along with Iran, has said it has proof sarin gas was used by the rebels.

In the 1990s, Moscow provided Syria support for the programme, followed by Tehran since 2005, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), an independent organisation tracking data on weapons of mass destruction.

An analyst at the non-proliferation and disarmament programme of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says Syria has the biggest chemical weapons programme in the Middle East, launched with the goal of counterbalancing Israel's nuclear programme.

On January 30, Israeli warplanes bombed a ground-to-air missile battery and adjacent military complex near Damascus suspected of holding chemical weapons, with Israel saying it feared their transfer to Lebanon's Shiite militant group Hezbollah, according to a US official.

According to The New York Times, the raid could have damaged Syria's main research centre into biological and chemical weapons.

At home and abroad, America's disastrous war in Iraq hangs over the debate on Syria, feeding skepticism that US military action can deliver as promised.

"It's the elephant in the room," said Larry Korb, a former Pentagon official and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

"Had we not had the Iraq war, there would be no real question here," he said, suggesting that proposed strikes on Syria would have been "approved overwhelmingly" by Congress.

Now, however, President Barack Obama faces stiff resistance as he tries to persuade lawmakers and world leaders to punish the Syrian regime's alleged use of chemical weapons.

In a painful irony, Obama -- the Democratic senator who won the White House partly thanks to his opposition to the Iraq invasion -- now finds himself arguing for another "war of choice" in the Middle East without UN backing.

The strange twist has not been lost on Obama, who once castigated his predecessor for pursuing a war of "undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences."

Acknowledging that "there's a certain suspicion of any military action post-Iraq," Obama has promised repeatedly that there will be no US boots on the ground in Syria.

And, in presenting its case for action, the Obama administration has been anxious to avoid accusations of hyping the intelligence, which tarnished the rationale for the Iraq invasion.

But for the most part, the argument against bombing the Syrian regime has not hinged on the credibility of intelligence reports.

Instead, skeptics have questioned the purported effect of the planned missile strikes and warned of unintended consequences.

Lawmakers in Washington and diplomats abroad have not forgotten being told by George W. Bush's deputies that toppling Saddam Hussein would be a "cakewalk" with a modest price tag.

Instead, US forces stayed in Iraq for eight years, with 4,400 troops and an untold number of Iraqi civilians killed, at a cost of about three trillion dollars.

"I suspect a lot of the opposition to using force now stems from the bad taste that Iraq left in people's mouths," said Stephen Biddle, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

"And it's made them skeptical of claims that you can use a little bit force and be done," he said.

According to a CNN poll released Monday, 59 percent of Americans said Congress should reject US military action against Syria and 69 percent said it is not in the country's national interest to get involved in the conflict.

Despite the opposition to strikes, the survey showed most Americans believe the administration's charges that President Bashar al-Assad's regime used chemical weapons.

The hangover from the Iraq conflict has fed deep skepticism among America's allies, and its impact was on full display when British MPs voted against taking part in any American-led missile strikes.

"The well of public opinion was well and truly poisoned by the Iraq episode and we need to understand the public skepticism," said Prime Minister David Cameron, whose call for intervention went down to resounding defeat in the British parliament.

There is little enthusiasm for intervention among US military leaders, who saw the Iraq debacle unfold and came away wary of nation building and "regime change."

Much of the top brass would prefer to avoid any action that could draw the United States into the cauldron of Syria's civil war.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, has endorsed "limited" strikes on Syria, but he has said Iraq weighs heavily on his mind and has repeatedly warned of the risks of trying to oust Assad.

"Once we take action, we should be prepared for what comes next. Deeper involvement is hard to avoid," he wrote last month in a letter to senators.

The crisis over Syria has led commentators to invoke references to the "ghost" of the Iraq war and the "burden" of Bush's legacy.

Bush "gave every world leader, every member of Congress a reason to keep the dogs of war on a leash," wrote Timothy Egan in The New York Times.

"The isolationists in the Republican Party are a direct result of the Bush foreign policy," he wrote.

"A war-weary public that can turn an eye from children being gassed - or express doubt that it happened - is another poisoned fruit of the Bush years."

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