Japan to radically overhaul defence policy on China threats
Tokyo (AFP) Dec 14, 2022 - Japan is expected to announce its biggest defence overhaul in decades this week, hiking spending, reshaping its military command and acquiring new missiles to tackle the threat from China.

The policies, to be outlined in three defence and security documents as soon as Friday, will reshape the defence landscape in a country whose post-war constitution does not even officially recognise the military.

"Fundamentally strengthening our defence capabilities is the most urgent challenge in this severe security environment," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said at the weekend.

"We will urgently ramp up our defence capabilities over the next five years."

The shift is the result of Tokyo's fears about China's growing military strength and regional posturing, as well as threats ranging from North Korean missile launches to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Key among the new policies is a pledge to boost spending to two percent of GDP by 2027 to bring Japan in line with NATO members.

That marks a significant increase from historic spending of around one percent, and has sparked criticism over how it will be financed.

The money will fund projects including the acquisition of what Japan calls "counterstrike capacity" -- the ability to hit launch sites that threaten the country, even preemptively.

Japan has previously shied away from acquiring that ability over disputes on whether it could violate the constitution's limit on self-defence.

In a nod to the controversy, the policy documents will reportedly insist that Japan remains committed to a "self-defence-oriented security policy" and will "not become a military power".

Part of that capacity will come from up to 500 US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles Japan is reportedly considering purchasing as a backstop while it develops longer-range missiles domestically.

- 'Greatest strategic challenge' -

Japan has also announced plans to develop a next-generation fighter jet with Italy and Britain, and is reportedly planning to build new ammunition depots and launch satellites to help guide potential counterstrikes.

The changes will also affect military organisation, with the Nikkei newspaper reporting that all three branches of the Self-Defense Forces will be brought under a single command within five years.

The SDF presence on Japan's southernmost islands will be increased -- including a tripling of units with ballistic missile interception capacity, according to local media.

The documents, including the key National Security Strategy, are expected to point to China for the shift in policy.

Japan's ruling party reportedly wanted to term Beijing a "threat", but under pressure from its coalition partner will settle for dubbing China a "serious concern" and Japan's "greatest strategic challenge".

That still represents a sea change from 2013, the document's first iteration and the last time it was updated, when Japan said it sought a "mutually beneficial strategic partnership", a phrase expected to disappear now.

Worries about China have deepened since major military drills carried out by Beijing around Taiwan in August, during which missiles fell in Japanese economic waters.

China on Wednesday said they are "firmly opposed" to the proposed documents.

They "deviate from Japan's commitment to bilateral relations and the consensus between China and Japan, and contains groundless smears against China," said Wang Wenbin, China's foreign ministry spokesman.

Japan is also expected to call Russia a challenge, compared to a 2013 pledge to seek cooperation and "enhance" ties.

Japan has joined Western allies in imposing sanctions on Moscow over Ukraine, sending already frosty relations into deep freeze.

The radical defence overhaul is likely to anger Beijing, which has regularly referenced Japan's wartime belligerence in criticising Tokyo.

It may also cause waves domestically, though surveys show growing support for a stronger defence strategy.

"For Japan's defence policymakers, these developments represent not a militarist resurgence but the latest step in a slow, gradual normalisation of defence and national security posture," said James Brady, vice president of Teneo consultancy.

Key points of Japan's new defence strategy
Tokyo (AFP) Dec 14, 2022 - Japan will soon outline plans to drastically expand its defence capabilities over the next five years in response to threats from China and nuclear-armed North Korea.

Here are some of the key changes expected:

- Counterstrike capacity -

Defence spending will be ramped up to reach the NATO standard of two percent of GDP by 2027, rising from a traditional level of about one percent.

Some of the money will be for missiles that can be used to destroy enemy launch sites that threaten Japan -- so-called "counterstrike capacity".

To do that, the country is reportedly considering buying up to 500 US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles.

- Missile upgrades -

Japan also wants to deploy more than 1,000 long-range cruise missiles able to reach North Korea or coastal areas of China, according to the Yomiuri newspaper.

The nation will likely spend five trillion yen (US$37 billion) "to develop and build out its own domestic missile capacity", said James Brady, vice president of Teneo consultancy.

Japanese-developed "extended-range Type-12 (surface-to-ship) missiles, diversified launch platforms, and high-speed glide weapons" could be included in the upgrades, Brady added.

The country reportedly plans the construction of around 130 new ammunition depots by 2035 to hold counterstrike missiles and other armaments.

- Southern islands -

To counter threats from an increasingly assertive China, Japan is expected to beef up its military presence in its southernmost islands.

The country will reportedly triple the number of military units there equipped with ballistic missile interception capabilities.

According to local media, the government also plans to increase the number of troops stationed in the southern Okinawa region from 2,000 to 3,000.

- Military structure -

Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) will be reorganised, with the army, navy and air force placed under a joint command to respond more quickly to emergencies, the Nikkei newspaper said.

For the same reason, the government reportedly wants to make it easier for the military to use civilian ports and airports during peacetime by March 2024.

Japanese officials also want to improve coordination with US forces to better prepare for a potential Taiwan crisis, Nikkei said.

There will be new units responsible for drones and another dedicated to cyber warfare as well as improved capacity for information-gathering and responding to high-tech weaponry such as glide bombs and hypersonic weapons.

Japan is also expected to increase its surface-to-ship defence units from five to seven, and work to strengthen cooperation between Japan's coastguard with the SDF and foreign coastguards.

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