The launch took place from a submerged position in the White Sea, and, as a naval spokesman said, "The warhead arrived at the test site Kura in Kamchatka as scheduled. Although telemetric data are still being processed, it can be said that the launch and flight proceeded without a hitch," and the missile successfully hit its intended target, he added.

The jury is still out on whether this is true. Tests of the Bulava, a missile designed to be installed on the new Borey-class Project 955 nuclear-powered undersea cruiser Yury Dolgoruky and her sister ships Alexander Nevsky and Vladimir Monomakh, currently under construction at the Sevmash factory in the city of Severodvinsk in the Arkhangelsk region, are conducted amid tight secrecy.

Information, whether good or bad, comes in drips and drabs, sometimes long after launches are made and from unnamed and classified sources.

Russia's navy pins great hopes on the Bulava, which has been plagued by problems for 15 years. The missile is also the focus of intrigue, with some designers wishing it good luck and others good riddance.

The job of developing the new intercontinental missile system for a nuclear submarine of the Borey class, laid out at Sevmash in 1996, was given to the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering, known for its ground-launched solid-propellant missile systems RT-2PM Topol -- NATO designation SS-25 Sickle -- and silo- and land-based RT-2PMU Topol-M -- NATO designation SS-27.

These systems are expected to form the core of Russia's strategic deterrence now and in the future. The Bulava, in turn, is to be the centerpiece of Russia's naval strategic deterrence. The fact remains, however, that the missile systems now adopted by the navy, and the nuclear submarines carrying them, will retire in the next 10 to 15 years and will have to be replaced with more effective and increased high-precision weapons. All Russia's hopes now lie with Borey-class submarines, Project 955 and its missile Bulava.

The main problem was that the institute had never made missiles for the navy. They were designed and produced at the Makeyev Design Bureau in the city of Miass, which was initially tasked with developing a new strategic missile system called Bark for Yury Dolgoruky and all Project 955 vessels. The missile, however, proved ineffective. A series of three tests ended in failure.

Military experts are at odds over the causes. Some blame defects in manufacturing technology, others the design's imperfections. Still others intimate that behind it all was the man who commanded the armed forces at the time. Being a missileman himself, he warmed to the Moscow Institute rather than to the naval design bureau. So when mishaps followed -- they are inevitable in tests of such sophisticated weapons as strategic missiles -- he decided in favor of his pet institute, since it promised to make the Bulava as unified with the new Topol-M as possible, thus saving the sizable amount of money required for the development of a sea-launched missile.

(Nikita Petrov is a Russian military analyst. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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