Russia's loss of its flagship cruiser Moskva represents a dent in the operational capabilities of the Russian navy and a severe wound to Russian pride at the height of the war against Ukraine, analysts say.

The Moskva sank on Thursday after an explosion and fire that Ukraine claimed was a successful missile strike and Russia said was the result of exploding ammunition.

Until the sinking of the Moskva, nobody had good reason to doubt Russia's supremacy in the Black Sea during the conflict with Ukraine but these calculations have now changed.

"In symbolic terms this is a great loss," said ex-admiral Pascal Ausseur, director general of the Toulon-based Mediterranean Foundation of Strategic Studies (FMES).

The 12,000-ton ship should have been able to withstand one missile impact or more and get a fire under control, but instead went under in just 12 hours, he told AFP.

"That was not part of the plan," Ausseur said, adding that the Moskva probably housed the command post for the naval group which now will have to find a new home.

- 'Same errors at sea' -

Coming after successive setbacks for President Vladimir Putin in the 50-day-old war -- including an unexpectedly weak air and land combat record -- the loss of the Moskva will also have a real impact on the Russian navy's ability to attack Ukrainian targets and keep its fellow fighters safe.

"Russia is committing the same errors at sea that they previously made on land," said one high-ranking French officer.

The 186-metre- (610-foot-) long cruiser was equipped with 16 surface-to-surface Bazalt/Vulcan missiles used against ships as well as Fort missiles, which are navy-adapted versions of long-range S-300s, and short-range Ossa missiles.

Able to carry a crew of 680, its role was to give air cover to other ships during their operations, especially during the bombing of targets on the coast and landings, according to a Telegram post by Sergei Brachuk, a spokesman for the Odessa regional military administration.

But beyond representing a body blow to Russian military prestige, the Moskva's loss is probably not a game changer for the Russian campaign, Western analysts said.

"The rest of the Black Sea Fleet remains a puissant force," said Nick Brown at British intelligence analysis firm Janes.

- 'Not de-fanged' -

Brown cited the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates with their much more modern air defence suite, able to launch Kalibr precision land attack missiles, as examples.

"The fleet has not been de-fanged," he told AFP.

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysts said in a note that the loss of the Moskva would reduce Russia's ability to conduct cruise missile strikes but was "unlikely to deal a decisive blow to Russian operations on the whole."

"The Moskva's main role was likely conducting precision strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles on targets in Ukrainian rear areas, including logistics centres and airfields," they said.

The remaining force is all the more crucial for Russian capabilities as Moscow cannot dispatch a replacement for the Moskva while Turkey keeps the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits closed to warships.

This, some analysts say, may not make a huge difference to the current phase of the war which has seen the Russian navy play a limited role.

But the ship's loss could force Moscow to revise any plans to give the navy a bigger role in the future, said Maia Otarashvili at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Russian strategists have to ask the uncomfortable question whether Ukraine has more powerful defences against naval onslaught than they thought, she told AFP.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly asked friendly Western governments to supply him with much-needed coastal defence missiles.

"What kind of recently-acquired anti-ship missiles does Ukraine have? And what damage can they do to the Russian navy?" she asked.

- 'Real vulnerability' -

Another consequence is that it is now far less likely that Moscow would launch any amphibious operation against a Ukrainian city such as Odessa.

"Even before this... the Russians did not have air superiority, which is a sine qua non for launching an amphibious operation," said a senior French naval officer, who asked not to be named.

"Now they are less ready than ever to do so," added the source.

The full story of what caused the Moskva's demise are unlikely to be known soon, as experts will need to examine its hull which is now somewhere in the depths of the Black Sea.

But it's already clear that the disappearance of the Moskva "reveals a real vulnerability" of the Russian navy, Ausseur said.

Whether it was a direct missile hit or an explosion caused by problems on board they "indicate possible Russian deficiencies -- either poor air defenses or incredibly lax safety procedures and damage control on the Black Sea Fleet's flagship," the ISW analysts said.

Ukraine claims missile strike on Russian warship engulfed in flames
Odessa, Ukraine (AFP) April 14, 2022 - Ukraine said Thursday it had hit Russia's Black Sea flagship in a rocket attack, igniting an inferno that Moscow said "seriously damaged" the warship as the Kremlin complained that Kyiv was targeting its citizens in sorties across the border.

Moscow accused its neighbor of wounding civilians in helicopter strikes on residential buildings in the Russian border region of Bryansk, even as Ukrainians fled their own homes amid fears of an imminent offensive in the east.

Kyiv denied the accusation, saying Russia was staging "terror attacks" on its own soil to spur "anti-Ukrainian hysteria".

The guided missile cruiser Moskva has been leading Russia's naval effort against Ukraine in the seven-week conflict, in which civilian killings have sparked accusations of genocide by US President Joe Biden.

Russian state media did not mention a missile strike when quoting the defence ministry as saying ammunition detonated on the Moskva after a fire broke out.

The ship was "seriously damaged," forcing an evacuation, officials added, before the fire was put out, allowing the vessel to remain afloat.

But Odessa military spokesman Sergey Bratchuk said the Moskva was damaged by "Neptune domestic cruise missiles," in an account largely echoed by the regional governor.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine's east and south, civilian evacuations had been set to resume Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said, after a day-long pause that Kyiv blamed on Russian shelling.

More than 4.7 million Ukrainians have fled their country in the 50 days since Russia invaded, the United Nations said.

The flagship fire came after the United States unveiled an $800-million military aid package that includes heavy equipment specifically tailored to help Ukraine repel the Russians in the east, from howitzers to armoured personnel carriers and helicopters.

Following its pullout from northern Ukraine earlier this month after failing to take the capital, Russia is refocusing on the east, with Kyiv warning of bloody new clashes to come in the Donbas region.

- 'No electricity, no water' -

Seizing Donbas, where Russian-backed separatists control the Donetsk and Lugansk areas, would allow Moscow to create a southern corridor to occupied Crimea.

But rain that has been battering the region for days could favor Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian forces, a senior Pentagon official said Thursday.

"The fact that the ground is softer will make it harder for them to do anything off of paved highways," said the official, who spoke under condition of anonymity.

Moscow's Black Sea fleet has been blockading the besieged Crimean port city of Mariupol, where Russian officials say they are in full control.

In what appeared to be its first official accusation of abuses targeting Russians, the Kremlin said at least six air strikes had hit residential buildings in Bryansk, wounding seven people including a toddler.

"Using two military helicopters carrying heavy weaponry, Ukrainian armed forces illegally entered Russian air space," Russia's Investigative Committee said in a statement that could not be immediately verified.

Russia sparked fears of a return to conflict around Kyiv on Wednesday when it threatened to attack the capital's strike command centres in retaliation for any strikes on Russian soil.

But in eastern Ukraine, civilians say they have "no rest" from bombardment, including in Severodonetsk, the last easterly city still held by Ukrainian forces.

Now little more than a ghost town, the settlement just kilometres from the front line has already buried 400 civilians, according to Lugansk regional governor Sergiy Gaiday.

"There's no electricity, no water," Maria, who lives with her husband and mother-in-law, told AFP amid a din of shelling that she said never stops.

"But I prefer to stay here, at home. If we leave, where will we go?"

- 'Nobody remembers us' -

Tamara Yakovenko, 61, and her 83-year-old mother had decided to run the risk of fleeing Severodonetsk, where "every 10 or 15 minutes there are bombings".

"We used to receive humanitarian aid, but now nobody remembers us. Some people try to cook outside on a fire... And boom, boom... everyone has to run back to the basement," Yakovenko said.

"All night until morning, there is no rest."

Beyond the humanitarian crisis, the war's economic consequences -- primarily surging food and fuel prices -- were "hitting hardest the world's most vulnerable people," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned in Washington.

The United Nations announced the release of $100 million to fight hunger in Yemen and six African countries at risk of famine due to the war disrupting food supply chains.

"Hundreds of thousands of children are going to sleep hungry every night while their parents are worried sick about how to feed them," said UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths.

"A war halfway around the world makes their prospects even worse. This allocation will save lives."

Investigators have descended on areas around Kyiv previously occupied by Russian forces, looking into reports of war crimes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed as "fakes".

The atrocities -- some of which were witnessed by AFP -- have led Biden to accuse Putin of genocide, a term key European partners including France and Germany have hesitated to use.

The French government, which has allocated 100 million euros for humanitarian support to victims of the conflict, said its embassy would return "very soon" to Kyiv from the western city of Lviv, where it had been relocated after the invasion.

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Ukraine says it hits strategic Russian warship in Black Sea
Odessa, Ukraine (AFP) April 14, 2022
Ukraine claimed Thursday to have hit Russia's flagship in the Black Sea with missiles, igniting a fire that Moscow said "seriously damaged" the warship as it accused Kyiv of helicopter strikes elsewhere over its territory. Even as Ukraine pushed to restart civilian evacuations ahead of a feared major offensive in the east, Russia claimed its own citizens were being targeted, accusing Ukraine of injuring civilians in helicopter strikes on residential buildings in its western Bryansk region. Kyiv ... read more