At present, al-Qaida in Iraq and its extreme Islamist cause in that country are on the ropes, largely because the al-Qaida movement's brutality toward the Iraqi population has cost it its political base among the Sunnis concentrated in central Iraq and the capital, Baghdad.

However, last week the Iraqi Parliament sitting in Baghdad passed the new Status of Forces Agreement that would keep American combat troops in their country at least through the year 2011. The U.S. government regards that outcome as a success, which it is not. What the United States needs most is to get out of Iraq before the next round in the Iraqi civil war starts.

However, to get the support of the minority Iraqi Sunni Muslim community to ensure the approval of the SOFA, the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had to agree to submit the deal to a national referendum scheduled to be held next year.

If the SOFA is defeated in that referendum vote, everyone could win. American troops would have a better chance of getting out while Iraq is still quiet. The Maliki government could gain some legitimacy by obeying the expressed will of the Iraqi people and telling the Americans to pack and go. Al-Qaida could claim that, in the end, the American forces were expelled from Iraq rather than leaving on their own preferred timetable, which in fact stretches far beyond 2011.

If al-Qaida can think operationally, it will announce it is suspending all combat operations in Iraq until the referendum is held. That truce would allow it to patch up its relations with its base and make progress in the political dimension.

Further, al-Qaida would state that if the SOFA is defeated in the referendum, it will not resume combat operations. It would have no need to do so, since it could claim victory. And its pledge would encourage Iraqis, who are tired of seemingly random bombings, to vote no. Al-Qaida in Iraq could then recover at the ballot box -- and in the political dimension -- from the defeat it has inflicted on itself in the field -- in the military dimension.

A strategic win-win-win would be a strange outcome indeed for this phase of the Iraq war. There is more to come.

But such are the vagaries of Fourth Generation war. We will see similar oddities in Afghanistan as that war moves toward settlement. The sooner policymakers in the United States, whether in the outgoing administration of Republican President George W. Bush or the incoming one of Democratic President-elect Barack Obama, can stop thinking in binary, "we win, they lose" terms and get used to strange outcomes, the better.

earlier related report
Japan ends Iraq mission
Baghdad (AFP) Dec 08 - The Japanese contingent in Iraq on Sunday wound up its mission during a ceremony at a coalition base in one of Saddam Hussein's former palaces in Baghdad, the US military said.

"The members of the Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force have been with the coalition forces since the onset of the conflict," said Major General Michael Ferriter, deputy commanding general for operations.

With a small contingent left to carry out an air support mission, Japan flew in goods and personnel in support of the US-led coalition.

"This was a very valuable experience," said Sergeant Major Takeshi Yamada, Japan's operations coordinator, also quoted in a US military statement. "This is a good experience for young soldiers who will be deploying overseas again."

The departure ceremony took place at Faw palace, one of executed dictator Saddam's former palaces, at Camp Victory near Baghdad international airport.

The Japanese contingent on the ground was last deployed in Samawa, southern Iraq, where it supplied water, rebuilt schools and roads, and provided medical aid up until 2006.

Japan's logistics mission then carried out 800 flights, transporting 46,000 passengers and 600 tonnes of goods between Baghdad and southern Iraq, according to the US military.

Troops were sent to Iraq in 2004 by then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi after the March 2003 invasion, marking the first time that Japan deployed armed forces to a country where fighting was underway since 1945.

Japan has been officially pacifist since its defeat in World War II.

The end of the air mission in Iraq was ordered on November 28, winding up a four-year deployment which involved 600 troops.

The mission, which was deeply unpopular with the Japanese public, was Japan's last remaining military operation in Iraq after the country ended its landmark ground deployment in 2006.

"Japan will continue to support Iraq through measures such as yen-denominated loans and technological cooperation," Prime Minister Taro Aso has said.

The government is now expected to focus on extending an Indian Ocean naval mission providing refuelling support to the US-led military operations in Afghanistan.

(William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Free Congress Foundation.)

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