Accusations of military interference, encroaching extremism and a series of deadly attacks have cast an alarming shadow over Pakistan's hopes for a rare democratic transition of power in next week's election.

Observers have slammed "blatant" attempts to manipulate the ballot, which will see the brother of a recently jailed three-time prime minister face off against a former World Cup-winning cricketer for leadership of the nuclear-armed nation, whose short history is peppered by coups and assassinations.

A series of deadly attacks in mid-July has further darkened the mood, denting optimism over hard-won security for the country of 207 million.

"Whatever its result, the July 25 election will only increase Pakistan's instability," says former Pakistan diplomat Husain Haqqani. "It will be an election without winners."

Nearly 106 million Pakistanis, including more than 19 million new voters, will choose a successor to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which took power in 2013 and hopes for a new mandate under leader Shahbaz Sharif.

Its biggest challenger is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former national cricket captain Imran Khan, seen in the West as a celebrity playboy but who turns a devout face towards Pakistan.

A third choice, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari -- son of slain premier Benazir Bhutto -- could become kingmakers, forming a coalition with the winner.

- 'Silent coup' -

The brief, acrimonious campaign has been overshadowed by a tug-of-war between two actors who cannot even hold office: former premier Nawaz Sharif, ousted over corruption and banned from politics; and the military.

Sharif -- older brother of Shahbaz -- accuses the generals of targeting his party, including intimidating his candidates to switch allegiances, particularly in Punjab province.

Punjab holds the key to power under Pakistan's first-past-the-post system, with a potential 141 out of 342 seats in the National Assembly, 272 of which are directly elected.

The stand-off between Sharif and the military peaked earlier this month, when he was sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison for corruption.

One week later, he returned to Pakistan from London, where his wife is receiving cancer treatment, and was promptly imprisoned. Analysts say the PML-N's fate rests on his ability to frame himself as the victim of a military conspiracy.

He is not alone in his accusations against the generals. Major Pakistani media outlets and activists have increasingly complained of kidnappings and intimidation in recent months.

The pressure, branded a "silent coup" by one think tank, seeks to censor coverage of certain topics and parties ahead of the election, they say.

The PML-N appears to be the main focus, though Bhutto has also complained his campaign is being hampered.

There is a widespread belief that the generals prefer a weak civilian government who will not seek to rebalance the power between it and the security establishment.

"The military is clearly trying to create a new generation of leadership," says security analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.

Khan is seen as the beneficiary of that favour, allowed to move freely around Pakistan and proclaim his ambition to build an "Islamic welfare state". His chances of running the country are considered the best they have ever been.

The military, which has ruled Pakistan for roughly half its history, denies the allegations and says it takes "no direct role" in the election. It is set to deploy more than 370,000 soldiers on polling day.

- Urgent challenges -

The independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has declared itself "gravely concerned over what it sees as blatant, aggressive and unabashed attempts to manipulate" the elections.

"While it is critical that the polls are held as scheduled, there are now ample grounds to doubt their legitimacy -- with alarming implications for Pakistan's transition to an effective democracy," it said this week.

Even if it escapes a slide back in to insecurity and authoritarianism, Pakistan faces pressing challenges.

One of the most acute is the economy, with analysts warning the next government has little time to avert a balance-of-payments crisis, likely requesting Pakistan's second IMF loan in five years.

It will also have to tackle one of the fastest population booms in Asia, negating economic and developmental gains, and particularly alarming when combined with the threat of absolute water scarcity as soon as 2025.

Security has improved dramatically since a military crackdown. But analysts have long warned of Pakistan's failure to address the root causes of extremism.

Militants still carry out spectacular attacks -- including a suicide blast last week that killed 149 people, the second most deadly attack in Pakistan's history.

In such a context, Khan in particular has raised eyebrows by increasingly catering to religious hardliners, spurring fears his leadership could embolden extremists.

Military interference in the ballot prevents people from voting out bad leaders who don't address the country's needs, says the diplomat Haqqani.

"The solution to Pakistan's problems is letting democracy run its course," he said.

Pakistan election: army's long history of political meddling
Islamabad (AFP) July 19, 2018 - Pakistan's powerful military says it is taking "no direct role" in the July 25 election, but a history of coups and dictatorships is fuelling fears over the balance of power in civil-military relations.

Here is a brief overview of Pakistan's troubled path to democracy under the shadow of military rule.

- Chaos and the first coup -

Pakistan is created as a homeland for Muslims in 1947 as the subcontinent gains independence from Britain.

But its founder, the venerated Mohammad Ali Jinnah, dies one year later. Over the next decade some seven prime ministers come and go before the military finally has enough of the chaos, with General Ayub Khan launching the country's first military coup in 1958.

He is succeeded by General Yahya Khan in 1969 in the face of mass unrest, but Pakistan does not come back under civilian leadership until a disastrous civil war sees East Pakistan splinter away to form Bangladesh in 1971. Khan hands over the presidency to Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto that same year.

- Bhutto's hanging and the second coup -

Bhutto, founder of the populist Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), appoints a new army chief in 1976 -- General Zia-ul-Haq -- a surprise promotion that some say reflected the prime minister's view that Zia was no threat.

If so, it proves a wild miscalculation. Not only does Zia depose Bhutto in the country's second coup in 1977, he jails the prime minister and, two years later, has him hanged.

Zia's totalitarian rule sees him impose Islamic laws and organise sham elections. He remains in power until he is killed in 1988, when his Hercules C-130 aircraft mysteriously crashes in Pakistan.

- Benazir, Nawaz, and the third coup -

Zia's death ushers civilian rule back in under the leadership of his old nemesis Bhutto's daughter, Benazir, who becomes the first female leader of any Muslim country.

She leads from 1988 until 1990, when she is ousted on corruption charges that she insinuates were fuelled by the military.

She is replaced by Nawaz Sharif, in the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader's first stint as prime minister, setting in place a paradigm of revolving leadership between the two politicians that continues until the army, once again, loses patience.

By 1999, the relationship between Sharif in his second stint as premier and then-army chief General Pervez Musharraf is rapidly deteriorating. Musharraf ousts Sharif in the country's third coup.

- From Musharraf into democracy? -

Musharraf names himself president in 2001 while remaining head of the army. He allows parliamentary and provincial elections in 2002, with his Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q) winning a majority amid allegations of massive vote fraud.

General elections are finally held in 2008, weeks after Benazir Bhutto is assassinated. Musharraf concedes defeat and the PPP eventually forms a coalition government with Yousaf Raza Gilani as prime minister.

Gilani is not allowed to complete his term, ousted in 2012 over contempt of court charges, and is replaced by Raja Pervaiz Ashraf.

The 2013 elections represent Pakistan's first ever democratic transfer of power. Nawaz Sharif, who went into exile after the 1999 coup but returned to the country in 2007, wins the contest in his most stunning comeback yet, becoming prime minister for the third time.

- Nawaz vs a 'silent coup' -

Sharif again clashes with the military, this time over his efforts to seek better relations with arch-rival India.

He is ousted by the Supreme Court following a corruption investigation in 2017, and banned from politics for life. He denies the allegations and loudly claims he is being targeted by the military.

An election is called for July 25. Sharif is sentenced to 10 years in prison for corruption and later arrested.

It is widely believed that Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, will benefit from the turmoil and may have links to the army.

Media, activists and analysts decry pressure from security institutions, "unabashed" pre-poll rigging, and even a "silent coup". The military denies the claims.

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