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TERROR WARS
More Arab fighters bolster Islamist forces

have gun, will travel.
by Staff Writers
Mogadishu, Somalia (UPI) Apr 15, 2010
The Islamist al-Shebab militia, linked to al-Qaida, has reportedly been reinforced with foreign operatives, mainly Egyptian and Sudanese, to help repulse a threatened offensive by the U.S.-backed transitional government.

The number is reported to be quite small, suggesting that these are intelligence and other specialists intended to improve al-Shebab's overall military capabilities than front-line fighters.

Their arrival follows that of at least a dozen senior al-Qaida veterans from Yemen in March to stiffen al-Shebab's fighting force.

But the long-expected big push by the Transitional Federal Government, which controls only a few seaside blocks of Mogadishu, the capital, around the presidential palace and the airport, has yet to materialize.

Officials had said it was to start Monday but, apart from some heavy clashes in Mogadishu in recent days that killed around 30 people, mainly civilians, the big push to secure TFG control over the entire city seems as distant as ever.

On the D-Day that never was, TFG President Sharif Ahmed flew from Mogadishu airport under mortar fire to Uganda to seek to drum up more military backing for his long-anticipated offensive.

According to diplomatic sources, the TFG has been seeking to downplay expectations from the much-touted offensive, saying that the government's effort will unfold gradually rather than be an all-out offensive with massed forces.

The main problem is the lack of trained troops, heavy weapons and honest commanders, who have a tendency to pocket their men's pay, much of it provided by the United States.

The offensive, dubbed Operation Restore Peace may sound somewhat grandiose but the name has unfortunate echoes of the ill-fated U.S.-led Operation Restore Hope launched in 1992.

In what was intended to be a humanitarian operation to help the civilian population caught up in clan warfare that erupted in 1991, 18 U.S. Army Rangers were killed and two helicopters shot down during a 1993 battle in Mogadishu, immortalized in the book and movie "Black Hawk Down."

That disaster eventually led to the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

Then, as now, power stemmed from control of food supplies, usually by one warlord or another.

The internationally recognized TFG, installed with Ethiopian military support in December 2006, controls the seaport and airport in Mogadishu, and that gives it some clout.

But its military forces are woefully inadequate and there has been little noticeable improvement in recent months amid talk of the much-delayed offensive.

U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor said, "Though the TFG has received some outside assistance, the raw number of troops at the government's disposal has proven barely sufficient to hold its ground in portions of Mogadishu, much less overcome the challenge posed by carrying out an offensive."

In recent months, Sharif's government has forged alliances with several militias in central Somalia and with neighboring Kenya to exert pressure on al-Shebab.

"While the end goal is to clear out all southern and central Somalia, the government's more pressing imperative lies in first establishing its writ over the entire capital city," Stratfor noted.

Ahmed has appealed to the Nairobi government to send some 2,500 Kenyan-trained Somali troops to Mogadishu to beef up his forces.

But Kenya refused, apparently because it feared leaving the border exposed to incursions by al-Shebab, which has vowed to attack Kenya for aiding the TFG.

As for the militias with whom Ahmed has concluded alliances, they are based in the countryside and are unlikely to help in the urban fighting that would take place in Mogadishu in any offensive.

There are some 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian troops of an African Union peacekeeping force in Mogadishu. But they are deployed primarily to protect the TFG and not take part in offensives. As it is, their mandate doesn't extend beyond the city.

Much reliance then is placed on the TFG's alliance with the 5,000-strong Islamist militia Ahlu Sunah Waljammah, which firmly controls central Somalia. Its main function seems to be blocking al-Shebab moving more of its fighters into Mogadishu from the south.

According to Stratfor, the TFG can only really only count on two battalions of reliable troops -- about 1,000 men -- out of an army of 8,000-10,000.

Al-Shebab and its militia allies may wind up launching an offensive first.



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