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NATO looks to bridge gaps on Ukraine membership bid; Macron urges 'tangible' guarantees
NATO looks to bridge gaps on Ukraine membership bid; Macron urges 'tangible' guarantees
By Max DELANY, Pierre-Henry DESHAYES
Oslo (AFP) June 1, 2023

NATO foreign ministers meeting in Oslo Thursday will try to narrow divisions on Ukraine's push to join, upping spending and finding a new alliance chief, ahead of a July summit.

Russia's war on Ukraine has galvanised the Western military alliance set up almost 75 years ago to face off against the Soviet Union.

But with just over five weeks to a meeting of leaders in Lithuania's capital Vilnius there are splits on key issues.

Chief among them is Kyiv's push to join NATO, an organisation that requires consensus to take decisions.

"There will be some challenging discussions among allies in the run-up to Vilnius, including on security guarantees or assurances for Ukraine and their desire for NATO membership," alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday.

"I cannot anticipate the outcome of the discussions, but what is clear is that all NATO allies agree that NATO's door is open."

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, backed by NATO countries in eastern Europe, is calling for a "clear message" at the July summit that Kyiv will join once the conflict with Russia ends.

Ukraine concedes it will not become a member while fighting rages on its territory. But it wants the alliance to move beyond a vague 2008 pledge that it will one day be in NATO.

Diplomats from NATO countries say its dominant military power, the United States, is reluctant to go further than that vow on membership made 15 years ago.

Joining NATO would mean that Ukraine would be covered by the alliance's Article 5 collective defence clause that obliges all allies to help defend it if attacked.

Despite the divisions, diplomats at NATO remain relaxed that a compromise can be found in the intense negotiations planned before the Vilnius summit.

One option is countries offering Ukraine bilateral security assurances outside the alliance's framework.

France has said it could be ready to provide some form of guarantee.

But there are major questions how any commitments to Ukraine could work.

On a practical level, Stoltenberg is pushing for a decade-long programme worth 500 million euros ($530 million) per year to help Ukraine's military switch to Western standards.

That would be on top of the tens of billions of dollars in arms that allies have already sent.

- New NATO head? -

Another hot potato for the Vilnius gathering is a new pledge to boost NATO's current target for each member to spend at least two percent of gross domestic product on defence.

Only seven members hit that figure last year, and the allies agree on the need to make the two-percent goal "a floor, not a ceiling".

But Eastern European members, which have already boosted defence spending beyond that, are disappointed by the lack of ambition shown by some allies.

On the other side, members such as Canada and Luxembourg are reticent to make any greater ambition too concrete.

One issue to be discussed by ministers on the sidelines of the meeting will be finding a successor to Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general.

The former Norwegian premier has held the post since 2014. Last year, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, his tenure was extended to September this year.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has emerged as a possible frontrunner and is heading to Washington next week for a meeting with US President Joe Biden.

She has bolstered her case by promising to triple Denmark's defence budget over the next decade.

But newer NATO members from the eastern part of Europe complain that it is time one of their politicians get the top slot, and argue the job shouldn't be dominated by just one region.

Other names being mentioned are Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Romania's President Klaus Iohannis, and British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

Diplomats say that if no clear choice emerges then Stoltenberg -- who says he won't put himself forward -- may be asked to stay on still longer, into next year.

Macron urges 'tangible' NATO security guarantees for Kyiv
Bratislava, Slovakia (AFP) May 31, 2023 - French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday called on the West to offer Ukraine "tangible and credible" security guarantees as it battles Russia's invasion.

Stressing that Ukraine "is today protecting Europe", Macron said in Bratislava that it is in the West's interest that Kyiv have security assurances from NATO.

"That is why I'm in favour, and this will be the subject of collective talks in the following weeks... to offer tangible and credible security guarantees to Ukraine," he added.

He said various NATO members could provide these guarantees for the time being as Ukraine waits to join the alliance.

"We have to build something between the security provided to Israel and full-fledged membership," Macron said.

The French head of state is on a visit to Slovakia, where he delivered a speech at an event organised by the international affairs think tank Globsec.

The event, focussed on regional security issues, comes in the run-up to the NATO summit in Lithuanian capital Vilnius on July 11-12.

Macron recalled that he once called the Western defence alliance "brain dead" but said Russia's invasion last year "had jolted NATO awake".

"We need to help Ukraine today with all means to carry out an effective counter-offensive" against Russian forces, Macron said.

"It's what we are currently doing. We have to intensify our efforts because what will happen in the next few months offers a chance even for... a lasting peace."

Macron also called on EU nations to buy European arms and acquire in-depth strike capabilities.

"It is up to us Europeans to in the future have our own ability to defend ourselves," he said.

"A Europe of defence, a European pillar within NATO, is indispensable. It's the only way to be credible... in the long-term," he said.

- 'EU must enlarge' -

The French leader also called for EU enlargement, to bring more countries into the fold.

The European Union should "invent several formats" to meet the membership aspirations of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, he said.

Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine itself are among the countries which have applied to join the European bloc, but conforming to the accession rules can be a difficult and timely procedure.

"Yes, it (the EU) must enlarge. Yes, it must be rethought in terms of its governance and its aims. Yes, it must innovate, no doubt, to invent several formats and clarify the aims of each of these formats," Macron declared.

"This is the only way to meet the legitimate expectations of the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine, which must join the European Union, and to maintain the geopolitical effectiveness, but also the climate, the rule of law and the economic integration of the European Union as it exists today," he insisted.

The two alternatives are to make candidate nations "wait indefinitely" or to let them swiftly join the existing EU structure with the risk that the bloc will no longer be able to function.

Macron will next visit Moldova on Thursday where he will meet with fellow European leaders, including from outside the European Union.

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