Kim, 66, failed to appear at a massive parade Tuesday in Pyongyang for the nation's 60th anniversary. US and Korean officials said he has likely suffered a stroke, possibly sometime in the past two weeks.

While analysts and officials say that his condition does not appear to be life-threatening, the reports refocused attention on who comes next.

Kim took power from his father Kim Il-Sung in 1994 in the communist world's only dynastic handover, and perpetuated the family's all-pervasive personality cult in the secretive Stalinist state.

It is unclear which of his sons, if any, would fill his shoes. But some analysts say officials in the ruling regime would likely close ranks to ensure its survival rather than engage in a power struggle.

"A group leadership of party and military leaders would emerge, possibly led by Jo Myong-Rok," said Jeung Young-Tae at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Jo is first vice chairman of the militaristic state's all-powerful National Defence Commission, which is headed by Kim.

The military and party leaders would most likely support Kim's eldest son Jong-Nam as his successor but he might not stay in power for long, Jeung said.

A new leader or group leadership without the personality cult surrounding the Kims could follow Jong-Nam's departure, Jeung told AFP.

Others believe Jong-Nam, 37, is not in the running at all.

Cheong Seong-Chang of the Sejong Institute said last December that he had never been seriously considered because he is an illegitimate son.

Cheong said Jong-Chul, 27, was the favourite as he is the eldest legitimate son of Kim. Jong-Chul studied in an international school in the Swiss city of Bern and former schoolmates described him as "caring and well-behaved."

Andrei Lankov, associate professor at Kookmin University, said there was no clear-cut mechanism for a power transition.

"Without Kim, a lot of top military and civilian officials will start thinking about taking power. There are chances of chaos or a power struggle.

"On the other hand, North Korea's elite understands that unity is a condition for their survival. They understand that the major threat is not foreign but domestic, if they lose control over the population."

There has been no on-the-record confirmation Kim is ill and a North Korean official has rejected the reports as a conspiracy by Western media.

Analysts believe the reports, the latest in a series stretching back years, are probably true, but that Kim's condition does not appear to be immediately life-threatening.

Professor Kim Yong-Hyun of Dongguk University said the North was showing every sign of normality and the mood at Tuesday's parade was far from depressed.

"They appeared to be far from being concerned," he told AFP, referring to top army generals and officials. "They were even chatting and smiling, watching over the parade."

Kim's place at the parade was taken by Kim Yong-Nam. The 80-year-old has served as de facto head of state for a decade but is not seen as a successor to Kim Jong-Il even if he outlives him.

Regular military units did not parade, only reservists and civilians.

Jeung said the North had apparently planned to mobilise regulars.

"They had prepared this parade, apparently expecting Kim Jong-Il to show up even if he is ill. They apparently waited until the last moment and decided to stage a scaled-down parade as Kim Jong-Il has not recovered enough to make it," Jeung said.

An unidentified South Korean official speaking to Yonhap news agency gave a similar account, saying Kim had undergone surgery after a stroke.

"His illness was not serious enough to threaten his life," the official said. "It seems that he had intended to attend the September 9 event in the afternoon but decided not to because of the aftermath of the surgery."

earlier related report
US hopeful of NKorea progress despite Kim health reports
The White House on Wednesday expressed guarded optimism about the future of North Korean nuclear disablement efforts amid reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il may be seriously ill.

Spokeswoman Dana Perino declined to comment on reports that Kim may have had a stroke, but zeroed in on what she described as "positive" comments on the future of the six-country process from the number-two leader in Pyongyang.

"I think that we are looking at the comments today from the second in command as positive ones, that we can hopefully continue to work to bring them into compliance," she said.

Kim Yong-Nam, North Korea's de facto head of state, told Japan's Kyodo News earlier that Washington was moving too slowly in rewarding Pyongyang for steps towards disabling its nuclear programs, but that problems can be overcome.

"Once time passes and we continue to try to find a way, I believe we can solve this," Kim was quoted as saying in an interview in Pyongyang.

"We are going to continue to work with the six parties. North Korea knows exactly what they need to do, which is to establish a verification protocol so that we could then take the next step that we promised to do, which is to take them off the terrorism list," said Perino.

North Korea announced last month that it was halting disablement work at its Yongbyon nuclear complex and has since apparently been moving equipment near the site, which was shut down under a six-nation disarmament-for-aid deal.

North Korea has pressed the United States to carry out promises to remove the regime from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, which would open up the impoverished state to US aid.

"We are not just one step but two steps ahead, and the United States is lagging way behind," Kim said, according to Kyodo.

Kim said he believed Washington's stance was linked to its "domestic situation," in a likely reference to the November 4 US elections, Kyodo said.

The United States says it is waiting for North Korea to agree on how to verify a declaration it made of its nuclear programs.

The nuclear deadlock comes amid growing focus on the health of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il. South Korean intelligence said Wednesday that Kim suffered a stroke but will recover.

Perino rebuffed questions about that situation, saying: "If and until North Korea's ready to talk about the health of their leader, I'll just decline to comment for now."

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