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NKorea would only use nukes if survival at stake: US

North Korea has staked out a tough stance in stalled nuclear disarmament negotiations involving the United States and four regional powers.
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Feb 12, 2009
North Korea is unlikely to use its nuclear weapons unless Kim Jong-Il's regime feels mortally threatened, but the Stalinist nation remains a wide-ranging menace, a top official said Thursday.

Dennis Blair, President Barack Obama's director of national intelligence, accused North Korea of exporting missiles to Iran while observing that Kim himself remains very much in charge despite an apparent stroke last year.

"Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and proliferation behavior threaten to destabilize East Asia," Blair told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, presenting the US intelligence community's annual "threat assessment."

Before its shock nuclear detonation of October 2006, North Korea was believed to have enough plutonium for at least six atomic weapons and there are "increasing concerns" that it is still enriching uranium, Blair said.

But the retired admiral added: "Pyongyang probably views its nuclear weapons as being more for deterrence, international prestige and coercive diplomacy than for war-fighting, and would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances.

"We also assess Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against US forces or territory unless it perceived the regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control."

North Korea has staked out a tough stance in stalled nuclear disarmament negotiations involving the United States and four regional powers.

And US and South Korean officials say Pyongyang seems to be preparing to test its longest-range missile, which can theoretically reach Alaska.

North Korea in recent weeks has also intensified threats against the conservative South Korean government of President Lee Myung-Bak. It has scrapped peace accords, nullified the sea border and warned of possible war.

On prospects for the regime's survival, Blair noted continued food shortages, a slump in trade with Japan after the 2006 nuclear test, and a more recent decline in trade with South Korea as tensions have risen.

"Despite this poor economic performance and the many privations of the North Korean public, we see no organized opposition to Kim Jong-Il's rule and only occasional incidents of social disorder," he said.

"The state's control apparatus by all accounts remains strong, sustaining the dismal condition of human rights in North Korea."

Blair said meanwhile that "North Korea has sold ballistic missiles and associated materials to several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, and, in our assessment, assisted Syria with the construction of a nuclear reactor."

The United States believes that a remote site in the Syrian desert called Al-Kibar had been a covert nuclear reactor close to completion, until it was razed to the ground by Israeli bombs in September 2007.

"We remain concerned North Korea could again export nuclear technology," the US intelligence boss said, as the six-party deal designed to disarm the Stalinist state falters.

Addressing intense speculation about Kim's health, Blair said the veteran strongman "probably suffered a stroke in August that incapacitated him for several weeks."

"However, his recent public activities suggest his health has improved significantly, and we assess he is making key decisions."

Kim appeared fit and showed no sign of having undergone brain surgery for his reported stroke when he met a visiting Chinese envoy on January 23, South Korean newspapers reported Tuesday.

Some reports in August said Kim, who turns 67 next Monday, had undergone brain surgery for the stroke. Other reports said he may have suffered partial paralysis on his left side.

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Pakistan must allay India fears: US intel chief
Washington (AFP) Feb 12, 2009
Pakistan holds the key to defusing tensions with nuclear rival India by executing a serious clampdown on Islamic militants, US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair said Thursday.







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