North Korea has been using satellite subterfuge to test parts of a so-called "monster" missile, analysts say, as it gears up for a sanctions-shattering launch ahead of a key domestic anniversary.

Pyongyang has conducted a record nine weapons tests so far this year, in what experts see as an effort to work through a laundry list of strategic weapons set out by leader Kim Jong Un.

One top priority is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can carry multiple warheads -- the Hwasong-17, dubbed a "monster missile" and first unveiled at a parade in October 2020.

It has never been test-fired -- but Washington said Thursday Pyongyang had recently tested parts of it disguised as a satellite.

North Korea has been observing a self-imposed moratorium on testing long range and nuclear weapons, but with talks stalled and sanctions still in place, it seems close to tearing it up.

"I think the moratorium is as good as over. We should expect to see a return to ICBM testing," said US-based security analyst Ankit Panda.

The tests of purported "reconnaissance satellite" components on February 27 and March 5 were likely the Hwasong-17, possibly the technology to "carry and deliver multiple warheads," he said.

"North Korea hasn't demonstrated the latter capability before, even if it has tested ICBMs capable of ranging the United States three times," he said.

- Cycle of escalation -

North Korea's renewed determination to test an ICBM comes at a delicate time in the region, with a new, more hawkish president, conservative Yoon Suk-yeol, set to take control in South Korea.

Yoon -- who has threatened Pyongyang with a pre-emptive strike and promised to tell "rude boy" Kim to behave -- looks set to take a hard line with the North after five years under dovish liberal President Moon Jae-in.

But this approach is likely to lead to a cycle of escalation that will ratchet up tensions, Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, told AFP.

Launches will be met with fresh sanctions, to which "Pyongyang will likely respond by test-firing more weapons."

North Korea paused its tests to "make room for diplomacy and avoid further sanctions," but always kept working on diversifying its missiles, said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Eventually, "in order to ensure accuracy and reentry capability, such weapons need to be tested," he said.

Masking these as satellite tests can help them to "buy time" to develop what they need to launch an ICBM, said Ahn Chan-il, a North Korean studies scholar, told AFP.

And Pyongyang has a clear deadline: North Korea will mark the 110th anniversary of the birth of founding leader and Kim's grandfather Kim Il Sung in April and likes to mark key domestic anniversaries with military parades or launches.

"It's very likely that North Korea is going to test-fire an ICBM on April 15 for Kim Il Sung's birthday," Ahn said.

- Day of the Sun -

By unmasking the purported satellite tests as an ICBM, Washington and Seoul are sending a clear warning to Pyongyang not to go ahead, said Hong Min, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

But if Pyongyang wants "to master re-entry technology," it needs to conduct multiple tests, he said.

By using the cover of "space rockets" it is hoping to "minimise backlash from the international community," he said, adding he agreed the next key launch will be around April 15 and tha more tests could follow.

North Korea's Kim was on Friday reported to have visited the country's satellite test center and called for it to be modernised and expanded.

But some analysts said that the US and South Korea were making too much of the recent tests, with Pyongyang entitled to develop peaceful satellite technology.

"If you are prohibited from having a kitchen knife just because there is a risk of you using it to kill someone, what would you do in the kitchen when you need to cook?" Cheong Seong-chang of the Center for North Korea Studies at the Sejong Institute told AFP.

North Korea's banned weapons: what's new?
Seoul (AFP) March 11, 2022 - North Korea has tested a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system, Seoul said Friday, with the US threatening fresh sanctions over the "serious escalation".

Pyongyang had claimed the two recent tests were of components of a "reconnaissance satellite" but the US and Seoul said they were of a so-called "monster" missile first showcased at a parade in 2020.

From hypersonics to cruise missiles, North Korea embarked on a string of launches earlier this year while threatening to restart long-range and nuclear tests.

Such tests had been put on hold while leader Kim Jong Un embarked on high-level negotiations with then US president Donald Trump, but talks collapsed in 2019 and have been stalled ever since.

What new capacity has leader Kim Jong Un's regime developed? AFP takes a look at North Korea's long-range ballistic missile technology:

Hwasong-12

Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), which are rocket-propelled for the first stage of flight, have a range of about 3,000-5,500 kilometres (1,800-3,400 miles).

North Korea's main IRBM is called the Hwasong-12, a missile powerful enough to hit the US territory of Guam. This is what it test-fired on January 30.

Pyongyang first successfully tested the Hwasong-12 in May 2017.

Under current UN Security Council sanctions, it is banned from testing any ballistic missiles.

Hwasong-14 & Hwasong-15

Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have a minimum range of 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles) and are primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery.

North Korea has tested ICMBs three times -- all in 2017 during a period of "fire and fury" when Kim and Trump traded insults and threats.

Pyongyang first tested the Hwasong-14 that year, claiming it reached an altitude of 2,802 km and flew 933 km during a successful test.

The launch date of July 4 coincided with US Independence Day, a gift for the "American bastards".

It tested the missile again at a lofted trajectory three weeks later.

North Korea continued its ICBM testing with the even more powerful Hwasong-15, a missile capable of reaching the US mainland.

Pyongyang claimed that during the November 2017 test it reached an altitude of around 4,475 km and travelled 950 km.

Hwasong-17

First unveiled on a 22-wheeled vehicle at a military parade in October 2020, the Hwasong-17, dubbed a "monster" missile by analysts, was seen as a new iteration of Hwasong-15, with technical improvements.

While it has yet to be test-fired, the US and South Korea have assessed that the North's two launches in early 2022 -- one on February 27 and one on March 5 -- "involved a new intercontinental ballistic missile system", likely components of the Hwasong-17.

North Korea had claimed the tests were of components for a reconnaissance satellite.

The Hwasong-17 is believed to have the capacity to carry multiple warheads, making it harder to intercept.

North Korea has not demonstrated this capability before.

Experts now expect Pyongyang to test-fire the Hwasong-17 -- likely disguised as a space rocket -- on April 15, the 110th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea.

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S. Korea's new president to teach 'rude boy' Kim Jong Un some manners
Seoul (AFP) March 10, 2022
Threatening a pre-emptive strike, swiftly responding to missile tests, and telling "rude boy" leader Kim Jong Un to behave: South Korea's next president looks set to get tough on the nuclear-armed North, analysts say. For the last five years Seoul has pursued a policy of engagement with Pyongyang, brokering high-level summits between Kim and then-US president Donald Trump while reducing joint US military drills the North sees as provocative. For president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol - who won a close e ... read more