Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Military Space News .




SUPERPOWERS
Outside View: Newtonian physics and international politics
by Harlan Ullman
Washington (UPI) Dec 11, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

One of Newton's famous laws -- that every action has an opposite and equal reaction -- is often mirrored in international politics. A key question is how to deal with these opposite reactions.

Just when breakthroughs in resolving the most pressing international crises appeared possible if not imminent, the roof fell in.

Syria's chemical weapons were being dismantled and destroyed. While the initial nuclear deal signed by Permanent Five Plus One, the European Union and Iran offered at least the promise of curtailing Tehran's ambitions it was a major step forward. Then boom!

Ukraine, pressured by Moscow and despite strong majority domestic opposition, turned East, not West, eschewing the opportunity to draw closer to the European Union and the Eastern Partnership.

China established a large air defense identification zone over international waters in the East China Sea upping the ante in the long-standing Sino-Japanese rivalry over the sovereignty of the tiny Senkaku/Diaoyu islets. Responding to the severity of the moment, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was dispatched to Tokyo and Beijing as a mediator to ease the tensions.

Meanwhile, Afghan President Hamid Karzai's refusal to sign a Status of Forces Agreement immunizing U.S. and allied troops from Afghan law is an absolute deal breaker if foreign forces are to remain in that country after the 2014 withdrawal date giving rise to the "zero option" in which not a single solider would stay behind.

Violence in Iraq continues to spike.

Fierce Saudi and Israeli resistance against the Iran nuclear agreement was enflamed by specious rumors about Pakistani nuclear weapons built with Saudi money in case Tehran does develop a bomb. The more preposterous rumor that Israel could transfer nuclear weapons to Saudi hands fortunately hasn't materialized.

And Egypt appears to be facing a major insurgency in the Sinai.

Drawing lessons from these opposite if not equal reactions is premature. However, a few observations are relevant. From a U.S. and Western perspective, traditional state-versus-state conflicts and tensions cannot be ignored, dismissed or overshadowed by the dangers of failed and failing states and religiously driven acts of terror by non-state actors such as al-Qaida or one of its affiliates, and individuals.

Second, institutions such as the United Nations and NATO are impotent in dealing with many crises and in this case, the Sino-Japanese confrontation or convincing Karzai that without foreign support and assistance, Afghanistan won't survive for long as a coherent state.

Third, multi-crises exceed the capability of any government, let alone the United States', to deal concurrently and effectively with each of them. U.S. foreign policy seems to be defined by where Secretary of State John Kerry is at any given moment. Riveted on the Iran nuclear deal, the White House dispatched national security adviser Susan Rice to Kabul instead of Kerry, in essence sending in the reserves.

Similarly, while Biden is highly credible as well as vice president, one wonders that if Kerry weren't preoccupied elsewhere, which official would have made the trip to China and Japan.

Further, even if the U.S. government had the capacity for multi-crises responses -- U.S. President Barack Obama's preoccupation with resurrecting his major legacy and singular legislative triumph, the Affordable Health Act, and helping Democrats win the 2014 congressional elections limits his attention -- what policies or actions could resolve these crises and who will develop them?

The national security organization never was and is not designed to handle multi-crises. Compounding these limitations, each of the major departments is already overloaded with responsibilities.

Defense faces massive cuts. Scandals from corrupt companies to sexual abuses demand valuable executive time when many senior positions are vacant. Finding a permanent replacement for the job of deputy secretary is still a work in progress. The intelligence community is still reeling from the National Security Agency/Edward Snowden revelations. And the State Department suffers from the same tyranny of time and limited executive attention.

There is an organizational answer: delegate authority and responsibility. Two possibilities could accomplish that.

First, within each embassy, establish a contingency cell created for these circumstances. The limitation is obvious. Resources would only allow this to done for selected posts and probably relatively few.

The other is to realign the staffs of the combatant military regional commanders along the lines of mini-National Security Councils with fuller senior representation from appropriate agencies. The limitations are also clear. No White House wants to defer or delegate responsibility beyond its control and few ambassadors will wish to feel subordinate to a regional boss.

But if Newton's law does apply, then the United States must do something to anticipate not merely multi-crises but ones that are both state- and non-state-based. Delegating responsibility, authority and accountability is one of the private sector's best practices.

Whether any president has the courage and boldness to apply that knowledge to government and crisis response is another matter.

(Harlan Ullman is chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of government and business, and senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








SUPERPOWERS
S. Africa's China ambassador 'compares Mandela to Mao'
Beijing (AFP) Dec 11, 2013
South Africa's ambassador to China has according to state media compared Nelson Mandela to Mao Zedong, the Communist leader whose rule saw tens of millions killed by famine and the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. "They were both very strong leaders who fought for the liberation of their people, and who also contributed to laying the foundation for further development in society," South Afr ... read more


SUPERPOWERS
Iran nuclear accord means NATO missile defence unnecessary: Russia

IBCS Completes US Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense Demonstration

Patriot performance excels in PAC-3 test firing

Israel moves closer to missile defense shield

SUPERPOWERS
Turkey says no new bids to rival China missile offer

Kongsberg seals Penguin missile deal with New Zealand

US Navy deploys Standard Missile-6 for first time

Raytheon Delivers High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missile Control Units

SUPERPOWERS
Northrop starts production of Global Hawk UAS for NATO

Pentagon chief talks drones with Pakistan PM

Northrop Grumman Begins On-Time Production of First NATO Global Hawk

U.S. responding to Gulf states push for UAV systems

SUPERPOWERS
US Navy Accepts MUOS-2 Satellite, Ground Stations After On-Orbit Testing

Boeing Tests Validate Performance of FAB-T Satellite Communications Program

Intelsat General To Provide Satellite Services To US Marines

Manpack Radios in Arctic Connect with MUOS Satellites Orbiting Equator

SUPERPOWERS
Less than 90 days: how US will destroy Syria chemical weapons

Switzerland, Austria seek U.S. Foreign Military Sales deals

Fill out the form for your bomb: Pentagon

Much of Venezuela's Russian arms said to be faulty

SUPERPOWERS
EADS vows to limit redundancies in jobs cull

EADS details restructuring effect on jobs

EADS to cut 5,800 jobs in Europe in restructuring

Russia indicts former defence minister

SUPERPOWERS
White House dismisses critics over Obama-Castro handshake

NATO leader's term extended by two months

Outside View: Newtonian physics and international politics

Survey: US, China distrust each other, but mildly

SUPERPOWERS
Berkeley Lab Researchers Discover Nanoscale Shape-Memory Oxide

Laser light at useful wavelengths from semiconductor nanowires

Stanford engineers show how to optimize carbon nanotube arrays for use in hot spots

Ultra-sensitive force sensing with a levitating nanoparticle




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement