If the Pentagon chooses Turkey, it will be able to monitor not only Iran's missile program but also the situation in European Russia -- strategic missile forces deployed in Ivanovo, Tver, Saratov and Kaluga regions. If it opts for Israel, its main goal will be Iran, and if it deploys its ABM systems in Japan, the targets will be China and Russia, including Russia's strategic missile forces in the Krasnoyarsk territory.

The missile-tracking radar is ineffective without interceptor missiles, which means that a new ABM interceptor base inevitably will be built nearby. So we may soon hear about the "classified location" of such a base.

Russia is worried about these preparations, especially since its relations with the United States are deteriorating, including over South Ossetia. Russian generals are also worried because the United States is not fulfilling the pledges it made at the meetings of both countries' defense and foreign ministers to make the ABM system transparent to Russia.

Russian participants in these meetings have told me they believe the United States has no intention to formalize or make binding its promises "not to deploy anti-ballistic missiles in their silos until they know for certain that Iran has created missiles capable of reaching Europe" and "to place the Czech radar so that it faces only Iran."

Further complicating things, the Pentagon has said it will allow Russian officers to visit its ABM facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic only if the two countries grant them visas.

This only increases Russian suspicions about the true target of the U.S. strategic missile defense systems in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not say at his news conference in Warsaw last week how Russia would respond to their deployment near its border. "Do you really expect me to disclose the General Staff's secrets?" he asked.

But Russia's possible response is not a secret anymore. Russian generals, including Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of the Strategic Missile Force, have said more than once that Russia would retarget its strategic missiles at the Czech Republic and Poland. If they want to become targets for Russian nuclear missiles, it's their choice, the generals say.

Russia has told Washington more than once that no fence of anti-ballistic missiles near its border would save the United States from a retaliatory strike by missiles capable of evading ABMs as well as by air and naval systems.

The latest reminder was the flight of two Russian Tupolev Tu-160 White Swan -- NATO designation Blackjack -- variable geometry strategic bombers to Venezuela, and the upcoming Russian-Venezuelan naval exercises, which may involve strategic and multirole nuclear submarines.

The United States may soon find the ballistic missile system it is installing contrary to Russia's interests more of a headache than an asset.

-- (Nikita Petrov is a Russian military analyst. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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