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Outside View: The whole Mideast enchilada

Fatah meeting pivotal for peace prospects
The divisions that fragment Palestinians and threaten hopes for an Israeli-Palestinian peace process were on full display at the Fatah Party convention currently being held in Manger Square, Bethlehem. More than 2,000 delegates from all over the world are attending the first convention of Fatah in 20 years and the first ever on Palestinian land. Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority that controls the West Bank, hopes that the meeting will address internal divisions in Fatah, adopting a new political program and electing new leadership. How successful it is will determine how effective Fatah can be in dealing with Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, and in peace negotiations with Israel, which Abbas has promised to pursue.

"Although peace is our choice, we reserve the right to resistance, legitimate under international law," he said in his opening speech, straddling most sides of a sensitive issue for delegates -- the place and character of "resistance" in dealings with Israel. The party's old guard, associates of Yasser Arafat, founder of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and whose image dominates the conference chamber, are under fire from younger leaders for being corrupt and out of touch with the Palestinian grassroots. The new generation, men in their 40s and 50s, want greater influence on Fatah's direction through the new elections to the central committee and revolutionary council. Many of them took part in the first intifada, launched in 1989, and, unlike the old guard, have lived most of their lives in Gaza or the West Bank. They see Hamas' success -- in 2006 Hamas defeated Fatah in legislative elections and in June 2007 drove Fatah out of Gaza in a violent coup -- stemming from a group of young leaders in touch with the concerns of ordinary Palestinians. Fatah, they argue, needs new blood to succeed, particularly since youth make up 60 percent of Palestinian society.

Probably the most popular and respected figure for this group is Marwan Barghouti, currently serving a life sentence in an Israeli prison for the murder of five people, including four Israelis. Given his popularity, it is not clear whether the new generation is ready to renounce violence and commit to the pursuit of a negotiated peace. Where they stand on this will be a key outcome of the convention, shaping the future direction of Fatah and the prospects of peace negotiations. Before dealing with Israel, however, Fatah has to deal with Hamas. Hamas banned 400 Fatah representatives in Gaza from attending the meeting. Some 100 found their way to Bethlehem anyhow. Meanwhile, Israel allowed Fatah representatives, even from Syria, to travel to the meeting, seeing Fatah as their best hope for peaceful coexistence. Hamas action was intended to secure the release of Hamas detainees in the West Bank, but Abbas and the Palestinian Authority refused to let them go. Hamas had earlier threatened to boycott the reconciliation talks with Fatah taking place under Egypt's auspices if the detainees were not released.

Abbas addressed conflicting realities when he said, "We have to find ways of having a relationship with Hamas" but then called Hamas "princes of darkness who divide the homeland" over the blocking of the delegates from Gaza. Hamas' action precipitated further division at the conference. Former Fatah security chief in Gaza Mohammed Dahlan and a group of Gaza delegates demanded that one-third of the seats up for election should be reserved exclusively for Gaza. Faced with this and other contentious issues, Abbas suggested that the meeting could be extended for two days, until Saturday.

by Harlan Ullman
Washington (UPI) Aug 5, 2009
The visits last week to the Middle East by national security adviser James L. Jones and special envoy George Mitchell raise the question of the Obama administration's aims and expectations in bringing a greater measure of peace and stability to a conflict that so far has defied solution. Is the White House after any measure of success, however small, so as to declare victory? Or is the administration prepared to roll the dice in favor of a cosmic settlement despite the risks of failure?

The arguments for the former are overwhelming. The administration has been chided and criticized for simultaneously pursuing virtually all of the most trenchant issues facing the nation at home and abroad and therefore overloading a political system of checks and balances that was never designed for timely reaction across such a broad front. Hence, why bring another intractable issue into play before resolving such critical matters as healthcare, the economic crisis, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea?

The history of failed expectations in the Middle East for the United States dates back to Gen. George Marshall's recommendation to President Harry Truman not to recognize the state of Israel because it would prove too destabilizing to the region. President Jimmy Carter came close to success with the Camp David Accords in which Egypt and Israel recognized each other. President Bill Clinton attempted a "Hail Mary" pass in the waning days of his second administration to bring the PLO and Israel into agreement. However, whether with "roadmaps" or other initiatives, each attempt ended ultimately in tears. So why should the Obama administration look for a more cosmic solution?

There are two basic answers. First, and controversial, is that solving or at least lessening the Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflict would have a hugely salutary effect in the Middle East and beyond. No one knows the full extent of negative consequences that conflict has held for inducing peace and stability now exacerbated by the rise of jihadist extremism. However, an effective settlement surely would reduce a huge amount of animosity against the West and the United States among Arabs and Muslims.

Second, if not now, then when? With relatively new administrations in place in Washington and Israel, surely it is better to attempt an overarching approach before policies become hardened and overtaken by other crises. Had Bill Clinton tried earlier, who knows what would have happened. That said, naysayers will be in the largest majority opposing any steps other than a tactical and technical solution that goes neighborhood-by-neighborhood and block-by-block to reduce the hatred and grounds for revenge that have been years in the making.

What might such a cosmic solution look like? The Obama administration regards the creation of a Palestinian state that links the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as a preferred solution, deferring the setting of precise borders and boundaries and the future of Jerusalem to later discussion. Indeed, such an approach might be achievable and acceptable to all participants. However, as others such as former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski have argued, the key to success is to resolve the more profound differences that have so far proven impervious to solution.

These great divides include recognition of and the right of Israel to exist; the Golan Heights; the right of Palestinian return; Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza; and the status of Jerusalem. How then to address these unresolved and divisive issues? Here is one such approach that could be termed a Middle East trifecta.

First, the Arab and Muslim worlds must recognize Israel and its right to exist. Second, in exchange, Israel must allow the establishment of a Palestinian state. Third, to start this process, a peace agreement with Syria that returns the Golan to Syria in exchange for recognition of Israel is long overdue. The Golan would be demilitarized, and that condition could be guaranteed by the stationing of even a handful of Western or U.S. troops.

In creating a Palestinian state, the stationing of Western troops in the West Bank as mentors and guarantors of security would be a precondition. For such a settlement, and despite the huge obstacles, military presence is essential. Certain NATO and EU members are amenable to that. And, while not fully satisfactory, dealing with Israeli settlements and boundaries would be part of a longer-term negotiation.

Critics will argue that Israel will be the big loser in such a broad attempt. The Arabs and Palestinians could renege once a Palestinian state is established. Negotiations on the tougher issues could fail. All of that is possible. But the prospect of a breakthrough has never been more urgently needed. So no matter how crowded the plate, go for the big enchilada.

(Harlan Ullman is a distinguished senior fellow at the National Defense University and a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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