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Previous wars point to Putin's tactics in Ukraine; Day seven situation on the ground
By Adam PLOWRIGHT and Cecile FEUILLATRE
Paris (AFP) March 2, 2022

Spain to send 'military hardware' to Ukraine: PM
Madrid (AFP) March 2, 2022 - Spain will supply weapons directly to Ukraine following Russia's invasion, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Wednesday, two days after saying Madrid would only contribute via an EU funding mechanism.

The move came after pressure on Sanchez's left-wing coalition government to take a more proactive approach to the war raging on Europe's eastern flank.

"Spain will give the Ukrainian resistance offensive military hardware," said Sanchez, without giving specific details on what that would entail.

He previously said Spain would only supply offensive capabilities through the EU's European Peace Facility (EPF), a 450-million-euro ($500 million) funding mechanism activated on Sunday to provide military aid to Ukraine.

"We are going to transfer offensive material through this European peace mechanism fund... which we Europeans will be able to use to provide offensive material to Ukraine," he said in an interview late Monday.

A rising number of European states said they would send arms directly, prompting pressure from the right-wing opposition Popular Party, which urged Sanchez to "rise to the occasion" and not "hide behind the EU".

"We must respond to a European threat with a coordinated, united European response... and Spain responded immediately," Sanchez told parliament on Wednesday.

The United States, Canada and more than a dozen European countries have so far agreed to Ukrainian appeals for military equipment.

The announcement came a day after Spain said it would send 150 additional troops to Latvia as part of a wider NATO build-up in the Baltic region.

It already has 350 troops in place.

Sanchez said Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was "a brutal attempt to stop the construction of a European space based on values radically opposed to the authoritarianism he represents".

From wars in Chechnya to Syria, Vladimir Putin has overseen military campaigns that have inflicted vast and often indiscriminate damage on civilian infrastructure, raising fears he might repeat the tactics in Ukraine, observers say.

With his latest invasion seen by Western officials as going more slowly than expected, they see him turning increasingly to the use of artillery and missile strikes that, if continued, will lay waste to residential areas.

Putin's more than twenty-year career at the top of Russian politics was founded on his ruthlessness in military affairs.

Back in 1999, he was a surprise nomination for prime minister by then ailing president Boris Yeltsin whose popularity had been sapped by the country's economic woes, corruption and a bloody separatist war in the region of Chechnya.

One of Putin's first major acts as premier was to oversee a whole-scale offensive against the rebels in the breakaway Muslim-majority region in the far south-east.

Although he denied that a ground invasion was being prepared, tens of thousands of troops were ordered into Chechnya along with an aerial and artillery bombardment that reduced the capital Grozny to rubble.

"Putin behaved like a political kamikaze, throwing his entire political capital into the war, burning it to the ground," Yeltsin later wrote in his memoirs.

Grozny, already damaged during what was known as the First Chechen War in 1994-96, was described by the United Nations as the most destroyed city in the world following this second conflict from 1999.

But the fighting, reported by state media under tightly controlled conditions, turned Putin from a relative unknown to a favourite for the presidential election the following year which he went on to win.

- Syrian action -

After the invasion of neighbouring Georgia in 2008, which saw Russian troops easily overpower their badly equipped rivals, Putin ordered Russian troops into Syria in 2015 in support of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The move, which caught the West by surprise, saw Russian warplanes play a central role in a bombing blitz against rebels that devastated Syrian cities, most notably during the siege of Aleppo in 2016.

"Aleppo is now a synonym for hell," then UN chief Ban Ki-moon said in December that year after a blocade trapped tens of thousands in the city which was pummelled with artillery and air strikes.

Charles Lister, an expert on the Syrian conflict at the Middle East Institute, wrote on Twitter this week that images of the shelling of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv were "like Aleppo all over again".

Elie Tenembaum, a security expert at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), said that Putin had in fact initially attempted different tactics in Ukraine.

Apparently anticipating little resistance, air-borne special forces were landed near Kyiv last week in an attempted "thunder run" to take out the government, but were quickly killed or captured.

"It didn't work. They were up against too great a resistance, so what we're seeing now is a return to fundamentals," Tenembaum told AFP.

"Their main firepower is unguided munitions which risk devastating Ukrainian forces while causing very, very large numbers of civilian casualties which will increase the exodus (of refugees)," he added.

Images coming out of the country from Ukraine's second-city of Kharkiv, the southern port of Kherson and the suburbs of Kyiv showed damage to apartment blocks, schools, university buildings or government offices.

A suspected cruise missile exploded in the main square of Kharkiv on Tuesday.

"I don't see how Putin can climb down with dignity," warned Eliot A. Cohen, a security analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. "He will continue to double down, which will mean more destruction and suffering.

- War crimes? -

Critics of the Russian leader have long warned that he has been emboldened by previous operations which have gone unchallenged.

Russian chess master and opposition figure Garry Kasparov told Times Radio in London this week that "war crimes on an industrial scale" is "not new" for Putin.

The 69-year-old leader has called Russia's invasion a "special military operation" and said it was justified to defend Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine as well as to "de-nazify" the country which he claims is under far-right control.

Rights groups such as Amnesty International as well as online investigators that gather videos shot on the ground have begun safeguarding evidence they hope one day might lead to prosecutions.

Amnesty said it was "documenting the escalation in violations of humanitarian and human rights law, including deaths of civilians resulting from indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and infrastructure."

Russia's war on Ukraine: Day seven situation on the ground
Paris (AFP) March 2, 2022 - On the seventh day of fighting in Ukraine Wednesday, Russia claims control of the southern port city of Kherson, street battles rage in Ukraine's second-biggest city Kharkiv, and Kyiv braces for a feared Russian assault.

Here is a summary of the situation on the ground, based on statements from the sides, Western defence and intelligence sources and international organisations.

The military situation

- Russia says it has taken "full control" of Kherson, a port city on the Black Sea.

- Kherson's mayor says "We are still Ukraine. Still firm".

- Ukraine says Russian paratroopers also landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city.

- There is fighting in the streets of Kharkiv, Ukraine's army says.

- Emergency services report four dead, nine wounded in Kharkiv shelling.

- AFP witnesses see rocket damage to security, police and university buildings in Kharkiv.

- Russia steps up bombing of Ukraine's cities, including west and south of Kyiv.

- With Western observers noticing a Russian military column outside Kyiv, the capital remains braced for a possible assault.

- Mariupol on the Azov Sea is reportedly surrounded by Russian forces

- Spain is the latest country to announce supply of "military hardware" to Ukraine.

The military toll

- Ukraine claims 5,840 Russian soldiers have lost their lives in the conflict so far, a claim which cannot be verified.

- Russia says 498 of its soldiers have died in Ukraine. This toll, the first given by Moscow since the invasion began, cannot be verified.

- According to the Russian defence ministry, its forces have destroyed over 1,500 Ukrainian military elements including 58 planes, 46 drones and 472 tanks.

- Ukraine denies suffering military losses on this scale.

The humanitarian toll

- Tuesday's Russian attack on a Kyiv TV tower killed five, Ukraine says.

- More than 350 civilians have died in the conflict so far, including 14 children, Ukraine says.

- UN says nearly 875,000 people have fled conflict including nearly 200,000 in 24 hours.


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Russian invasion of Ukraine upends international relations
Washington (AFP) March 2, 2022
Russia's war against Ukraine is a week old, but its consequences are already reverberating across the globe: it has upended international relations, left Moscow isolated, united a previously divided West, and raised the specter of a nuclear standoff. - Russia, a 'pariah' state - Moscow's offensive marks a turning point for the whole world. Above all, Russia's attack shattered "the hope that post-Cold War Europe would be spared a large-scale land war," said Ali Wyne, Senior Analyst with Euras ... read more

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