Gates welcomed plans announced on Sunday by President Hamid Karzai's government to launch a new bid at making peace with Islamist militants, but said Taliban chief Mullah Omar and other leaders would be reluctant to lay down their arms until circumstances changed on the battlefield.

"Just speaking personally, I'd be very surprised to see a reconciliation with Mullah Omar," Gates told reporters aboard his plane en route to India.

"I think it's our view that until the Taliban leadership sees a change in the momentum and begins to see that they are not going to win, that the likelihood of reconciliation at senior levels is not terribly great," he said.

But he added that "we may see a real growth of reintegration at the local district and provincial level" as insurgents "come under pressure and know they're not going to win."

Those who left the insurgency needed assurances that their families would be protected from retaliation, he said.

Gates and top commanders have said previously that reconciliation efforts stood little chance of success without halting the momentum of the insurgents.

Karzai's new reconciliation plan will be announced ahead of a major international conference on Afghanistan due in London on January 28, his spokesman Waheed Omar said on Sunday.

Conceding that past efforts at peace have failed, Omar said the new plan would include economic incentives as many Taliban fighters had joined for cash rather than to support a hardline religious ideology.

President Barack Obama's administration had not yet seen the details of Kabul's new initiative, but Gates said wooing insurgents was vital to resolving the war.

Karzai has long called for peace talks with the Taliban -- even offering government posts to its leaders -- but the insurgents have refused dialogue until the withdrawal of NATO-led troops on which Kabul relies for security.

Omar said the new plan would reach out to militants in all ranks, from the political leadership to fighters on the ground.

Gates also expressed cautious optimism about the results of US military operations in the southern Helmand province, where a force of thousands of Marines has tried to push the Taliban out of towns and villages.

"I think people are heartened by the early signs of the success of the Marines in Helmand, but its early yet and I don't think anyone is prepared to go too far in sort of talking about success down there."

The Marines in Helmand are part of a surge of 30,000 reinforcements ordered by President Barack Obama last month.

The deployment of the additional troops was on schedule, with about 92 percent of the additional forces due to be in place by the end of August, he said.

earlier related report
Gates seeks to reassure India over US plans in Afghanistan
New Delhi (AFP) Jan 20, 2010 - Defence Secretary Robert Gates promised Indian leaders in New Delhi that Washington will not abandon Afghanistan despite a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops, officials said.

In separate meetings with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna on Tuesday, Gates discussed "regional security" and offered reassurances over the target date of July 2011 for starting a drawdown of American forces, a US defence official said.

Gates, mindful of India's concerns about an early US exit, pledged the United States would remain committed to Kabul with major economic and diplomatic support even as its military presence is gradually scaled back after mid-2011, the official told reporters.

He told Singh and Krishna that "we intend to be involved in the region for a very long time," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The United States, which armed Afghan Islamic fighters against Soviet forces in the 1980s, had made the mistake of turning away from Afghanistan after the Soviets were driven out but would not repeat that mistake, Gates said, according to the official, who attended the meetings.

"The secretary anticipated (India's concern) ...and with both ministers was able to stress that mid-2011 was the beginning of a process, that we have learned from our experience in 1989, that we're not going to leave the region," the official said.

India's view was that Washington needed to "stay the course" in Afghanistan and Gates' comments "resonated very well" with his hosts, the official said.

The prime minister and foreign minister for their part offered to keep up India's major reconstruction aid for Afghanistan, the official said.

Before landing in New Delhi for his two-day visit, Gates described India as a vital strategic partner fighting the threat posed by Islamist militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Gates, who was due to meet Defence Minister A.K. Antony on Wednesday, also discussed expanding military cooperation with India to include joint efforts to safeguard sea lanes and ports, cyber networks and space, the official said.

"We want to develop cooperative programmes particularly in the maritime area, the cyberspace area and the space area," the official said, without offering more details.

The 2008 attacks on Mumbai, which left 166 dead and which India has blamed on the Pakistan-based Islamist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, underlined the importance of maritime security, he said.

"The attack in Mumbai came from the sea. So there's a definite need to track the movement of people who want to do harm to us out there," the official said.

US officials said the visit reflected a blossoming relationship between the two countries that has dramatically transformed since the mutual unease of the Cold War.

Defence ties have expanded following the attacks of September 11, 2001, and a deal in July between the two countries helped clear the way for the sale of hi-tech US weaponry to India.

Gates told the prime minister and foreign minister that there were more opportunities for defence trade and promised to help remove US legal barriers blocking India's access to some military technology, defence officials said.

A number of cooperation agreements were under discussion that would permit India to purchase a wider array of weaponry with sophisticated technology, the officials said.

The Pentagon chief wanted "to enable India to take advantage of the best technology that we can offer," the defence official said.

Gates cited the recent sale of US-made transport planes to India as a success and said American industry appeared "well-situated" in a competition for a lucrative contract to build fighter jets for India, the official said.

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