Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, was quoted by an Israeli newspaper as saying he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Syria and Israel in the summer. Ross told YnetNews, Yedioth Ahronoth's Internet edition, that "no one has made any decisions, but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."

According to the former U.S. State Department official, "Syria has rearmed Hezbollah to the teeth -- there should be a price to pay for that." Ross added that the Bush administration should aim to "squeeze the Syrian economy" by using "sticks before carrots" in dealing with Damascus.

The New York Sun, meanwhile, quotes an unidentified Baath official saying, "If Israel doesn't vacate the strategic Golan Heights before September, Syrian guerillas will immediately launch 'resistance operations' against the Golan's Jewish communities." The official said "Damascus is preparing for Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerilla attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September."

The official warns that "Syria has the capability to fire 'hundreds' of missiles at Tel Aviv in the opening salvo of any conflict." The official told the New York paper that Damascus has made numerous requests to Washington for the return of the Golan "either through negotiations or through war."

Some analysts believe Syria took notice of last summer's war between Israel and Hezbollah, prompting the leadership in Damascus to rethink its strategy.

Meanwhile a decision by Syrian authorities to recall its citizens from Lebanon before July 15 has not helped lessen the tension, nor the rumors, lending to speculation that there might be more than just rumors behind the latest tension in the Middle East.

Beirut's Daily Star newspaper reports that Damascus has ordered its citizens in Lebanon to return home by July 15, citing concerns over the "security situation in Lebanon." And a report in the government controlled Syrian daily al-Thawra said Syrian students studying in the public Lebanese University and the Beirut Arab University were authorized to enroll in public Syrian universities for the upcoming academic year 2007-2008.

MEMRI -- the Middle East Media Research Institute -- reports that on July 5, the Lebanese daily al-Liwa cited rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities. Arab and Iranian media reports have backed up the probability that Lebanon's current political impasse may turn violent after July 15. Indeed, a number of sensitive events affecting Lebanon and/or Syria coincide with the fatidic July 15 date.

The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to discuss the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 on July 16. The discussions will center on the Syria-Lebanon border and the possibility of positioning international observers along the border to prevent weapons finding their way from Syria into Lebanon.

The London-based al-Hayat newspaper says the United Nations' recommendations will demand the stationing of international experts in the border area to assist Lebanon's security agencies in monitoring the frontier.

Also between July 15 and 17 the head of the International Investigation Commission into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Serge Brammertz, is to submit his report to the U.N. Security Council.

The Iranian news agency speculates that the recall of Syrian nationals is due to the ultimatum Lebanese President Emil Lahoud gave the opposition to decide on how to deal with the crisis in Lebanon. Other sources think Syrians are being recalled home as Damascus plans to mobilize reserve units in expectation of an Israeli attack.

A contributing factor is a declaration by the Lebanese opposition of plans to establish a second government if no solution to the current political deadlock is reached by mid-July. Members of Hezbollah have joined President Lahoud in threatening to establish a second government in Lebanon. They speak of taking "historical" and "strategic" steps. Such a move would likely re-ignite Lebanon's civil war, or possibly cause the country to fracture.

A second government would have grave implications for UNIFIL, the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, based in the south of the country. UNIFIL "would find itself facing a new reality when it discovered that (Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad) Siniora's government was no longer able to support its activities or ensure its security," MEMRI reported.

A series of editorials in the Lebanese daily al-Mustaqbal, meanwhile, warns of a planned Syrian-Iranian coup in Lebanon, spearheaded by Hezbollah and backed by Iran and Syria. The paper, which is close to the pro-government March 14 Movement, speaks of Hezbollah's military preparations, including military activity both south and north of the Litani River, in defiance of U.N. Resolution 1701; and the transformation of the Bekaa region into a military zone.

With tension in the Middle East at an all-time crux, it would not require very much to set the region ablaze. If the Bush administration ever intended to push for peace in the region, now would be the time to do so.

Ignoring the situation and allowing it to deteriorate may result in a new front becoming active with the forces of UNIFIL finding themselves engulfed in a conflict stretching from Iraq to South Lebanon. The Spanish contingent, which has already suffered half a dozen casualties in South Lebanon, was the first to pay the price of this new war. earlier related report
Israel and Hezbollah, Round 2?
by Arnaud De Borchgrave
UPI Editor at Large Whether Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he wants to wipe Israel off the map is still contested, even by anti-mullah Iranian Americans. But that he wants to wipe out the Jewish state, there can be no doubt. As he completes his visits to every Iranian town, the collection of his pronunciamentos is edifying reading.

Culled from a wide variety of sources, ranging from the London Daily Telegraph, to the Suddeutsche Zeitung Online, to France's Le Monde and Liberation, Ahmadinejad spells out the target and the strategy:

-- This regime (Israel) will one day disappear.

-- The Zionist regime is a rotten tree that will be blown away by one storm.

-- The countdown for the destruction of Israel has begun.

-- Zionists are the personification of Satan.

-- In the case of any unwise move by the fake regime of Israel, Iran's response will be so destructive and quick that the regime will regret its move forever.

-- The West invented the myth of the massacre of the Jews (in World War II) and placed it above Allah, religions and prophets.

Ahmadinejad's strategic recipe:

-- We don't shy away from declaring that Islam is ready to rule the world.

-- The wave of the Islamist revolution will soon reach the entire world.

-- Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance pf the 12th Imam, the Mahdi (a 5-year-old boy who vanished 1,100 years ago and who will lead the world into an era of peace and prosperity, but not before the planet is convulsed by death and destruction).

-- Soon Islam will become the dominating force in the world, occupying first place in the number of followers among all other religions.

-- Is there a craft more beautiful, more sublime, more divine, than the craft of giving yourself to martyrdom and becoming holy? Do not doubt Allah will prevail, and Islam will conquer mountaintops of the entire world.

-- Iran can recruit hundreds of suicide bombers a day. Suicide is an invincible weapon. Suicide bombers in this land showed us the way, and they enlighten our future.

-- The will to commit suicide is one of the best ways of life.

-- By the grace of Allah we will be a nuclear power and Iran does not give a damn about (IAEA) demands (to freeze enrichment of nuclear fuel).

-- Iran does not give a damn about resolutions.

-- The Islamic Republic of Iran has the capacity to quickly become a world superpower.

-- Iran's enemies know your courage, faith and commitment to Islam and ... Iran has created a powerful army that can powerfully defend the political borders and the integrity of the Iranian nation and cut off the hand of any aggressor and place the sign of disgrace on their forehead.

-- In parallel to the official political war there is a hidden war going on and the Islamic states should benefit from their economic potential to cut off the hands of the enemies.

Addressing a conference devoted to "The World Without Zionism," Ahmadinejad said, "To those who doubt, to those who ask is it possible, or those who do not believe, I say accomplishment of a world without America and Israel is both possible and feasible."

Hyperbole, gigantism, overkill, huckstering, hocus-pocus, all of the above. But intelligence mounts daily of Iranian efforts to undermine U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan and U.N. efforts to stem the violence in Lebanon (six U.N. peacekeepers were killed by a roadside IED).

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's report said, "It is widely believed in Lebanon, including by the government, that the strengthening of Palestinian outposts could not have taken place without the tacit knowledge and support of the Syrian government."

Ban also noted Israel's claim that "the transfer of sophisticated weapons by Syria and Iran across the Lebanese-Syrian border, including long-range rockets (with a range of 250 miles) ... (and) anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, occurs on a weekly basis."

Israel also says Hezbollah "armed elements are constructing new facilities in the Bekaa valley, including command and control centers, rocket launching capabilities and conducting military training exercises."

There is little doubt Israel and Hezbollah are suiting up for a resumption of last summer's 34-day war in which the Israel Defense Force came off second best due to poor political and military leadership. Hezbollah is also shorthand for Syria and Iran. Tehran supplies the equipment and the funding. Syria acts as the transmission belt and is generously compensated.

Damascus has evidently concluded that an Israeli offensive across the Golan Heights is in the offing. For the first time in 40 years, Syria dismantled military checkpoints on the road to Kuneitra on its side of the Golan. Foreign journalists were barred from covering Israeli maneuvers on the Heights. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said the IDF was conducting military maneuvers -- and nothing more.

One of the more plausible scenarios has Israel preparing for a drive into Syria across the Golan Heights, and then fighting a "decisive" battle with the Syrian army on the road to Damascus, followed by a left "hook" into Lebanon to execute an outflanking attack on Hezbollah.

That could also be a strategically propitious moment for U.S. action against Iran. It remains to be seen whether the key players in President George W. Bush's National Security Council would agree an opportunity is at hand to dust off an Air Force and Navy contingency plan to take out Iran's 23 nuclear facilities.

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