The stance of the European trio, which represents the European Union, dramatically differs from Russia's position on the issue. The Kremlin believes that sanctions should be specific and cover only the sectors that worry the International Atomic Energy Agency, namely uranium enrichment, chemical reprocessing, heavy-water projects, and the production of delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons.

In a recent interview with Mexican publisher Mario Vasquez Rana, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia's stance on the solution of the Iranian problem was aimed at encouraging Tehran to talk with the IAEA in order to clarify the agency's questions and therefore restore the world's trust in the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. The Kremlin's logic is clear.

The European project, however, has a wider reach and stipulates a ban on trade with Iran in all spheres connected with its nuclear and missile programs, denial of visas to some Iranian officials, and a freeze on their funds and the funds of some Iranian companies abroad.

Moscow is unlikely to accept this stance, primarily because this loose wording could be used to include sanctions on the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, which is being built with Russian assistance, and other spheres. The six nations badly need to come to an agreement on the problem of Iran to draft an acceptable resolution and save the reputation of the Security Council.

Their meetings are becoming increasingly farcical. More than three months have passed since the Aug. 31 deadline by which Tehran should have stopped work on its first cascade of 164 uranium enrichment centrifuges. Since then, Iran has put into operation (although with a two-month delay) a second cascade.

Tehran has announced that it intends to complete its nuclear research program by the Iranian New Year on March 21. This involves the assembly of a cascade of 3,000 centrifuges, which it needs for the commercial stage of uranium enrichment. Russian and foreign experts believe that these centrifuges will enable Iran to create five to seven nuclear charges within 12 months.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has announced plans to receive the first batch of enriched uranium after commissioning 60,000 centrifuges.

The Natanz nuclear facility, where Iran is enriching uranium, is designed to accommodate only 54,000 centrifuges, but experts say that would be enough to create a nuclear bomb within two weeks. They also say the Natanz facility could reach its designed capacity in five to seven years.

Many Russian experts, however, think that Iran is bluffing when it speaks about turning on 3,000 centrifuges in March 2007. It could do this if it has bought the required number of centrifuges, but that is unlikely. Tehran is likely overstating its technical possibilities.

Russian expert Alexei Arbatov said it is inevitable that Iran will master the uranium enrichment technology. Perhaps the world should discuss with Tehran the scale and technological standards of its enrichment project rather than trying to halt it altogether? Maybe it should ask Tehran to stop at 1,000 centrifuges while there is still time? This compromise would allow Iran to carry on its nuclear research while also allaying global concerns about its nuclear program.

Nevertheless, these are nothing more than assumptions, and Iran has demonstrated its readiness to harness nuclear energy at all costs and despite the possibility of sanctions.

"Iran has made a crucial decision and is moving honorably along its chosen path," Ahmadinejad has said. According to the Iranian president, the people of his country will not only "rebuild Iran and propel it to the pinnacles of success, but will also open the door to freedom for other nations."

Pyotr Goncharov is a political commentator at RIA Novosti. This article was reprinted with permission from the news agency.

United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.

Russia Boosts Iran Nukes
By Pyotr Goncharov
UPI Outside View Commentator Moscow (UPI) Dec 18, 2006 Moscow intends to speed up the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. Sergei Kiriyenko, head of the Russian Federal Nuclear Power Agency, who led a delegation to Tehran last week, convinced the Iranian authorities to meet Russian nuclear-equipment export monopoly Atomstroyexport halfway in solving Bushehr's long-standing problems.

The highlight of Kiriyenko's visit was his meeting with Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.

During a news conference after the talks, Iranian officials tried to put the issue in a political context. "The two countries have mustered the necessary political will to ensure the inauguration of the NPP on the planned date," Aghazadeh told journalists.

But Kiriyenko was more realistic: "Moscow sees no political obstacles to inaugurating the Bushehr plant on the agreed date, but Russia will work in Bushehr only as fast as is technologically possible."

In other words, Kiriyenko told Tehran that the sides needed to either remove all obstacles or postpone the launch of the plant.

He also pinpointed the main obstacles: a chronic shortage of funds and delays in the delivery of equipment, especially by other countries.

These are old problems. Tehran has long been making monthly payments by installments, frequently transferring part of the monthly payment to next month and later pretending that it is for the current month, leaving the previous month's payment in limbo.

As for deliveries of equipment from other countries, it was Iran's decision to order equipment from the West without bothering to obtain guarantees of compliance with contractual obligations. And now Western companies, fearing American sanctions, prefer to keep away from Bushehr.

Russia and Iran found a solution during the second round of talks held from the Russian side by Atomstroyexport President Sergei Shmatko. They agreed that parallel contracts should be signed to preclude delays in the delivery of equipment, and also agreed to streamline the system for making contractual payments.

Since stable financing is the main factor, Russia "does not see major risks of a failure to inaugurate the plant, although it is an ambitious project that will call for considerable efforts by both sides," Shmatko said.

The Bushehr project has long gone beyond the framework of bilateral relations and pure business.

The Paris-based newspaper Le Monde explains the problems hindering the drafting of a U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran by Russia's stubborn "refusal to approve punitive measures against Iran because they may affect its participation in the Bushehr project."

Citing foreign diplomats, the newspaper writes that Russian officials are "completely intractable, and refused to heed Western recommendations on denying entry visas to the heads of Iran's sensitive programs."

According to Le Monde, Moscow might agree to prohibit financial transfers to Iranian bodies connected with nuclear and missile programs, but "refuses to freeze these bodies' foreign bank accounts."

The author of the article explains Russia's refusal by the fact that Iran's Atomic Energy Organization "has bank accounts in Russia in accordance with the contract for the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant." He writes: "[This is why] Russia has robbed the resolution drafted by the Europeans of its most important elements, and also reneged on the clauses it seemed prepared to accept in October."

Even if sanctions against Iran were introduced within weeks, "they would be symbolic at best," the author concludes.

Atomstroyexport officials brush off such statements as fantasy. They say deliveries of nuclear fuel will start in March of 2007, the nuclear power plant will be commissioned in September and start generating electricity in November.

Pyotr Goncharov is a political commentator at RIA Novosti. This article was reprinted with the permission of RIA Novosti.

United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.

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