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WAR REPORT
Russia to help people leave annexed region as Kyiv advances
By Emmanuel PEUCHOT with Dana Rysmukhamedova in Astana
Kyiv, Ukraine (AFP) Oct 13, 2022

Europe heading for warmer-than-average winter: forecaster
Paris (AFP) Oct 13, 2022 - Europe faces a higher-than-usual chance of a cold blast of weather before the end of the year, but the winter overall is likely to be warmer than average, the continent's long-range weather forecaster said Thursday.

Temperatures this winter will be crucial for homeowners worried about the record cost of heating their homes, and for European policymakers seeking to avoid energy rationing due to cuts in Russian gas supplies.

"We see the winter as being warmer than usual," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service that produces seasonal forecasts for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

"Nevertheless there is a still a significant chance of a block situation, which can lead to cold temperatures and low wind over Europe," he told AFP as the service issued a monthly update to its forecasts.

A so-called block or blocking pattern in the winter can bring stable, often wind-free weather accompanied by freezing temperatures.

"This was looking more likely in November, but there now looks like a pronounced probability of a cold outbreak in December," Buontempo added.

The ECMWF produces weather modelling with data from a range of national weather services around Europe.

Its forecasts are based on indicators such as ocean and atmospheric temperatures, as well as wind speeds in the stratosphere, but do not have the accuracy of short-range reports.

The models provide the "best information possible, to give a hint, to guide our decisions", Buontempo said.

The European winter was expected to be warmer than usual because of the "La Nina" global weather phenomenon, which is related to cooling surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

"We know that in a La Nina year, the latter part of the European winter tends to favour westerly winds, so warm and wet," Buontempo said.

The agency will update its winter season forecast next month when it will have greater confidence because "all the drivers for the winter will be more active", he said.

Independent energy experts expect Europe to be able to withstand Russia's gas cuts this winter, providing temperatures stay in line with or above the long-term average.

Governments have almost filled their strategic gas reserves and consumers are being urged to reduce their consumption.

The International Energy Agency, a Paris-based energy consultancy, believes temperatures over winter around 10 percent below the average would put strain on the European gas system.

It has also said a late cold spell, when gas stocks are expected to be low, could be the "Achilles heel of European gas supply security".

Russia agreed Thursday to help residents leave a region it "annexed" in a sign of success for Ukraine's counter-offensive, as the EU warned Moscow's army would be "annihilated" if the Kremlin uses nuclear weapons.

Moscow's decision to assist people in leaving Kherson came a day after Kyiv said it had retaken five settlements in the southern region.

"The government took the decision to organise assistance for the departure of residents of the (Kherson) region," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said.

The Moscow-appointed head of the area had appealed for intervention.

Vladimir Saldo suggested residents "leave to other regions to protect themselves from missile strikes".

Those departing would go to Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula Moscow annexed in 2014, and southern Russian regions.

Kyiv, which announced its counter-offensive in the south in August, said it has already recaptured over 400 square kilometres (155 miles) in the Kherson region in under a week.

Kherson, which lies near Crimea, was the first major Ukrainian city to fall to Russian forces after the February 24 invasion.

- Nuclear threat -

In Brussels, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell sent a strong message to the Kremlin after President Vladimir Putin's veiled threats of resorting to nuclear weapons to stem growing battlefield losses.

"Putin is saying he is not bluffing. Well, he cannot afford bluffing," Borrell said.

"Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer, not a nuclear answer, but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian Army will be annihilated."

The NATO alliance has stopped short of threatening to use its nuclear arsenal to respond as non-member Ukraine is not covered by its mutual self-defence clause.

In Kazakhstan, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defended Turkey's booming trade ties with Moscow during an in-person meeting with Putin on the sidelines of a regional summit.

But Erdogan did not deliver an offer to mediate negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv -- expected by the Kremlin -- and comments between the leaders made no mention of Ukraine, focusing instead on economic ties.

Putin proposed to create a "gas hub" in Turkey as Russia's supplies to Europe have been disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions -- an idea that France's presidency said made "no sense".

NATO member Turkey has sought to retain dialogue with its Western allies as well as Moscow, and has not joined sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile told the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on Thursday that "legal mechanisms" are needed to punish Russian war crimes.

"We must continue our dialogue in order to hold Russia as the aggressor state and each of the Russian murderers and torturers to account for all crimes in this war," he said via video link.

- Rebels push to Bakhmut -

On the battlefield, Russian-backed separatist forces in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine said they had captured two villages near the industrial city of Bakhmut, posting small gains against Kyiv's counter-offensive.

The villages lie just south of Bakhmut, a wine-making and salt-mining city that used to be populated by some 70,000 people and which Russian forces have been pummelling for weeks.

The reported gains came after Ukrainian troops had for weeks been clawing back large swathes of territory in the south and east of Ukraine -- including Donetsk -- controlled by Russian forces for months.

The Ukrainian military in an update said that it had repelled attacks near several frontline villages.

The governor of the Belgorod region also said that Ukrainian shelling hit housing in the southern Russian city and blew up a munitions depot in the border area.

- Boy pulled from rubble -

AFP reporters in Yampil just outside the recently recaptured Ukrainian town of Lyman on Thursday heard heavy exchanges of artillery fire to the southeast.

A Ukrainian soldier returning from the frontline said positions in Torske village were under fire from Russian guns guided by spotter drones.

Also in the south, the town of Mykolaiv was again rocked by Russian bombardments.

The head of the city Oleksandr Sienkevych said on social media a five-storey residential building was hit, with two upper floors destroyed.

"An 11-year-old boy was recovered from under the rubble and another seven people may still be there," he said, adding a security guard was killed at a sea rescue station.


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WAR REPORT
Cold Siberian air would help Putin this winter
Paris (AFP) Oct 12, 2022
Across Europe, governments are scrambling to prevent energy rationing and blackouts this winter. Whether they succeed will depend in part on something they have no control over: the weather. Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping for a cold winter or a prolonged period of freezing temperatures after cutting Russia gas exports to Europe in retaliation for EU support for Ukraine. Another cold season like 2010/2011 or a prolonged Artic blast like the "Beast from the East" which ble ... read more

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