"The naval surface warfare market is proving to be stable and healthy," said Stuart Slade, senior naval editor at Forecast International.

Several warship programs are helping the market, including the Franco-Italian FREMM program, which will see some 27 frigates added to the procurement arena. "FREMM is the largest non-U.S. naval production program in many years," said Slade.

"It will have a major impact on the surface warfare systems market."

The near universal adoption of the vertical launch system is a major factor since it allows even rela-tively small combatants to have large magazine capacities.

This means that a small change in the number of ships ordered can produce a major shift in the number of weapons procured for them, and an even bigger shift in the values of those weapons. At the same time, the extended construction time of modern warships acts to stabilize the market.

The naval surface warfare market's shift to land attack and littoral warfare is a driving force in the development of new guns and ammunition, along with new missiles to supplement those guns. These new develop-ments are being supported by the installation of multirole launchers and programmable fire control systems.

The development of long-range, rocket-boosted projectiles equipped with terminal guidance is eroding the gap between traditional guns and missiles. New guided, non-ballistic shells can strike targets 100 kilometers away with a level of accuracy previously the sole domain of missiles.

According to Slade, "The market that was once divided between gun and missile segments is rapidly merging into a new and seamless entity, where the choice between unguided shells and guided missiles is blurred by the development of new systems that share the qualities of both."

These improvements in range and accuracy reduce a munition's explosive payload, which is favored by the modern environment because its effect is more precise and controlled. This greater precision and control helps maintain the absolute requirement of keeping civilian casualties to a minimum.

A surface warfare role that has taken great prominence over the last year has been the outbreak of piracy off the coast of Somalia. However, Slade said, "Piracy is not new; defeating it is certainly the oldest of all surface warfare roles. What has changed is that pirates have been joined by terrorists who use the sea both as a means of accessing targets and as a scene of combat in its own right."

Maritime criminals and terrorists often mix in with civilians, using them as cover and protection. The "Naval Surface Warfare Market" analysis examines the challenging task of taking out the terrorists on a ship while leaving their hostages unharmed.

Overall, these changes in the emphasis and structure of the surface warfare market do not prevent the evolution of a stable sector. As the land-attack role continues to gain prominence, the companies in the surface warfare sector are likely to have a secure future.

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