If...

If a number of incentives are offered to Iran as part of a proposed "carrots and sticks" package aimed at resolving the crisis created by Tehran's nuclear quest, diplomats told United Press International.

If the United States supports Iran's entry into the World Trade Organization; if the United States considers selling brand new commercial planes to Iran, who badly needs to upgrade its aging commercial air fleet.

If among the inducements was a European light-water reactor to produce nuclear energy.

This new European initiative was proposed to the United States, Russia and China after the EU3 -- Britain, France and Germany, who are engaged in seeking peaceful means to defuse the nuclear crisis -- agreed to the proposal. Diplomats told UPI they hoped the incentives could eventually kick-start direct talks between Washington and Tehran, who have had no direct exchanges in 25 years. Maybe it's time they let go of the past, said one diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

But the fundamental question remains: will the United States find it in its national interest to bail out Iran when an extremist, such as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is president? Ahmadinejad is a radical who considers himself the spiritual son of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Not to mention Israel, and the powerful Jewish lobby, who definitely do not want to see a nuclear-powered Iran.

Ahmadinejad wants to pick-up where the ayatollah left off -- exporting the Islamic revolution to the rest of the Arab and Muslim world.

"Iran is looking for a leadership role in the region," Prince Faisal told journalists at a meeting in Washington Friday. Ahmadinejad has soared to great popularity, both in Iran and in the Arab world, an anomaly for a Persian Shiite leader to find such support among Arabs and Sunnis.

The Iranian president found support at home when he abolished the change every spring to daylight savings time that Iran had adopted since 1990. His antics of "wiping Israel off the map" and denying the existence of the Holocaust won him points among certain Muslim circles.

But it is his defiant stance over Iran's nuclear ambitions, his facing up to the United States and major European powers, which has gained him much popular support in the Arab and Islamic world. "Ahmadinejad is popular in the whole Muslim world, from Indonesia to Nigeria, as the man who says 'No' to the West," a senior diplomat told UPI.

Ahmadinejad's meteoric rise to political stardom "is something that went beyond his wildest dreams," said a diplomat. Khomeini was popular only among Shiites, whereas Ahmadinejad's popularity has spread beyond Shiites, into the majority mainstream Sunni branch of Islam.

"No one in Iran dares to challenge him," a senior diplomat told UPI. His popularity does not mean that the regime is popular. That should not be misinterpreted to think that Iranians would applaud military action against their country. To believe that aggressive action by the United States and/or Israel against Iran will solve the problem is not only erroneous, but na�ve.

Diplomats told UPI that sticks alone will not change Iran's current policy, which is why there is great need for carrots -- incentives -- to be included in the package. Incentives would include Russia building a nuclear reactor and maybe the Europeans building another. But European companies are afraid of participating in such a project lest they find themselves blacklisted in the United States for doing business in Iran, unless they were to receive assurances from the United States.

The wording of any resolution would have to be very carefully selected, allowing the Islamic republic an honorable way out without appearing to lose face. Instead of defining exactly what penalties Tehran could face if it refuses to abide by the United Nations' Security Council decision, the EU proposal suggests simply pointing out past sanctions imposed on countries that have defied the world body, letting Iran imagine which could apply to it. Sanctions could range from denial of visas, to total economic embargo.

But once again, that assumes that Iran is not dead set on obtaining nuclear weapons, as many analysts believe they are.

The optimistic view (seen from the West) is that Iran will be guided by its deteriorating social situation. The (limited) Tehran stock market is dropping. The economy is at a stop. Bankers in Dubai report unusual large transfers of funds from Tehran to Dubai, an indication of political uncertainty.

One foreign diplomat called it a "recipe for an explosion," but added: "We want a change of policy, not regime change. But is that what the U.S. wants?

Will a change of policy work? Can the ayatollahs be made to change their worldviews? One diplomat points to Libya as the example where policy was successfully changed, rather than the regime. True, but the fundamental difference between Libya and Iran is that Moammar Gadhafi is the sole ruler of his country, whereas Iran's leadership is somewhat more complex, with an elected president, an unelected supreme leader and an elected majlis (parliament).

Prince Faisal's hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian crisis now hinge on two very fine threads; first, assuming that the Bush administration has a defined policy on Iran and accepts the terms of the EU proposal; and second, that Iran accepts a change of policy.

Barring the above, the United States would instead concentrate on bringing about a change of regime.

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