Russian leader Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caught Europe off guard, and fears about the strength of NATO surged further after US President Donald Trump upended the transatlantic alliance, saying Europe must take care of its own security.
Both military analysts and European governments acknowledge that the threat of Russian aggression is real, today even more so than three years ago.
"The Russian military today is larger and better than on February 24, 2022. The Russians have hostile intent against the Baltic states and the EU's eastern flank," said Alexandr Burilkov, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science (IPW) at Heidelberg University.
According to a study Burilkov co-authored for think tank Bruegel and the Kiel Institute, Europe could need 300,000 more troops to deter Russian aggression, in addition to 1.47 million active-duty military personnel.
"Conscription would have to play a role in any such large numbers of new troops," he said.
From Paris to Warsaw, leaders have been looking to boost defence spending in the face of US threats to withdraw its European security guarantees.
But many countries, including France and Britain, have struggled with recruiting and retaining troops. Reintroducing some form of national service -- compulsory or voluntary -- might be even more difficult.
According to a YouGov poll, most people in France (68 percent) and Germany (58 percent) support mandatory military service for young people. Italian and British people are divided, while a majority of Spaniards (53 percent) are against it.
But studies also show that many Europeans are not prepared to defend their countries on the battlefield.
"In a liberal society, the imposition of military constraints has become nearly impossible to implement," said Benedicte Cheron, a French expert who studies links between society and the armed forces.
"As long as there is no invasion of the territory, accepting the political costs of imposing sanctions on those who do not comply with the call-up seems unthinkable."
- 'Incentives' -
After the Cold War, most European countries ended compulsory conscription. Just nine countries -- Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Turkey -- never suspended it.
Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015, a year after Russia annexed Crimea. Sweden followed suit in 2017 and Latvia in 2023.
But mindful of political and economic costs, most of NATO's five biggest European spenders -- France, Germany, the UK, Italy and Poland -- are not planning to make participation in armed forces mandatory.
But Poland, which ended conscription in 2008, recently announced plans to offer military training to 100,000 civilians a year, starting in 2027. The scheme will be voluntary but the authorities are planning a system of "motivations and incentives", said Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Germany's likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he favours the reintroduction of a compulsory year in which young people could perform either military or community service.
In Britain, the last national servicemen were demobilised in 1963 and the government does not plan to reverse course.
"We're not considering conscription, but, of course, we've announced a major increase in defence expenditure," said Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden.
In France, where compulsory military service ended in 2001, President Emmanuel Macron has been looking for ways to encourage young people to serve.
In comments to reporters published Saturday, he said France no longer had the "logistics" to re-introduce compulsory service, but he wanted to "look at ways to mobilise civilians" and would be making an announcement in the coming weeks.
Reintroducing national service "would mean transforming a large part of the army into training centres", said French military historian Michel Goya.
In Italy, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has ruled out reintroducing national service but spoken in favour of a reserve force.
- 'East-wide divide' -
Researchers say Western European politicians should learn from Nordic and Baltic countries, particularly Finland and Sweden.
Finland, which shares a long border with Russia and was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939, has one of the largest reserve forces in Europe.
"The east-west divide is still a problem. Few people in western Europe are willing to fight," said Burilkov. Convincing Europeans to volunteer would require advocacy campaigns, he said.
"There is also a relationship between whether people see the war as winnable and whether they want to serve, so dramatically improving European military capabilities will make people more confident in them."
Goya said Europeans had been suddenly struck by their vulnerability.
"It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked," he said.
"The American sea is receding, and many European countries are saying to themselves that yes, in the end, they are a little bit exposed."
'You may have to serve' in army, Polish PM jokes to new citizen Eisenberg
Warsaw (AFP) Mar 14, 2025 -
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Friday jokingly suggested US actor and producer Jesse Eisenberg, freshly given Polish citizenship, may have to undergo military training in line with a new law.
"Dear Jesse, get ready! I'll have news for you tomorrow," Tusk posted on social media site X after Eisenberg, 41, recently told NBC's The Tonight Show he was honoured to have had the nationality of his great-grandparents bestowed on him.
Eisenberg earned an Oscar nomination for best original screen play for "A Real Pain", which was filmed in part in Poland.
The film, which Eisenberg wrote, directed and starred in, recounts the story of Poland's Jewish population, focusing on two American cousins who travel there to honour their grandmother, a Holocaust survivor, based on Eisenberg's own great aunt.
Eisenberg himself played one cousin, with Kieran Culkin securing a best supporting actor Oscar for playing the other.
The actor and director had for some time expressed his desire to take Polish nationality and Polish President Andrzej Duda duly granted his wish last week during a visit to New York.
At the ceremony, Eisenberg said he realised how his family felt they had lost their connection to Poland after the tragedy of World War II and the Holocaust, which claimed the lives of several family members.
His great aunt Doris managed to flee in 1938 to the United States.
Alongside his social media post, Tusk also liked a video of Eisenberg's appearance on The Tonight Show where the actor said he was aware of the new law.
He said that the day after receiving citizenship he saw the "top news was that Poland now requires all males to participate in military training".
Poland has sent several years modernising its armed forces to counter a perceived threat posed by neighbouring Russia after the latter invaded Ukraine three years ago.
Tusk said on Tuesday that his government wanted to provide military training to 100,000 volunteers annually.
Macron says will announce plans to 'mobilise civilians'
Paris (AFP) Mar 15, 2025 -
French President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday ruled out bringing back mandatory military service but said he wanted to mobilise society in the face of Russian aggression and would make an announcement in the coming weeks.
Speaking to regional newspapers in comments recorded Friday and published Saturday, Macron said the return of compulsory military service was "not a realistic option."
He said France no longer had the "logistics" to reintroduce conscription, which ended in 2001.
"We are going to look at ways to mobilise civilians," Macron told the regional press, adding that he wanted to consolidate the "mobilisation of society in the face of crises."
European countries including France have been debating reinstating compulsory military service to boost their defences in the face of Russian aggression. Fears about the strength of NATO have surged further after US President Donald Trump said Europe must take care of its own security.
According to a recent poll, 61 percent of French people are in favour of re-establishing some form of compulsory military service.
During his presidential campaign in 2017, Macron had promised to introduce a month-long compulsory service, but the idea received a cool response from the army.
Macron has been looking for ways to encourage young French people to serve.
In January, he asked the government and the army to submit proposals by May on how to mobilise more young volunteers to "back up the armed forces" in case of need.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, speaking to Le Figaro, proposed creating "a voluntary military service", which would enable at least 50,000 men and women to be trained each year.
Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu has suggested strengthening a reserve force to 100,000 people.
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