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WAR REPORT
Syria boosts fears of Sunni-Shiite war
by Staff Writers
Beirut, Lebanon (UPI) Apr 19, 2012

Russia urges West to stop predicting Syria plan failure
Brussels (AFP) April 19, 2012 - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the international community on Thursday to ensure the UN-backed peace plan in Syria works and abandon "self-fulfilling prophecies" that it will fail.

Speaking after talks with NATO counterparts in Brussels, Lavrov said Russia was "honestly fulfilling its part" to end the violence but that nations with influence on the opposition should ensure they respect a week-old ceasefire.

"I have today called on my colleagues to abandon the rhetoric of self-fulfilling prophecies that (UN-Arab League envoy) Kofi Annan's plan will certainly fail," he told a news conference.

"Before thinking about what to do in the future, we should do everything to make this plan successful," he said.

Lavrov said he held talks at NATO with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who on Wednesday warned the regime of President Bashar al-Assad that it could face extra "measures" if the Annan plan fails.

"The major responsibility for what is happening in Syria is on the Syrian government. They should ensure the human rights, the security of their citizens and the sovereignty of their state," he said.

But the Russian minister accused the opposition of trying to undermine the UN observer mission in order to pave the way for the creation of buffer zones or military-backed security corridors.

Russia has met with members of the opposition but lacks the influence that other members of the UN Security Council and Arab nations have on them, he said.

"The crisis cannot be solved if outside players do not demand the same thing from all conflicting parties in Syria: to stop shooting, give observers a possibility to evaluate the situation and shift to political dialogue," he said.


The bloodbath in Syria is developing into a battle between Islam's mainstream Sunni sect, led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the breakaway Shiites, led by Iran.

The main fear in the region is the conflict could spread to Arab states, particularly those with sharp sectarian divisions, such as Iraq and Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil producer and the birthplace of Islam in the seventh century, has a sizeable Shiite minority, which predominates in the kingdom's Eastern province.

That's Saudi Arabia's main oil-producing zone, so it's highly sensitive and Riyadh has long feared that Shiite-dominated Iran seeks to use its co-religionists as a fifth column to sabotage its all-important oil industry.

Turkey, a Sunni-dominated state that under its Islamic government is striving to restore its Ottoman-era power and become the paramount state in the region.

Turkey, neighbor to both Iran and Syria, is increasingly being drawn into the Syrian conflict against the Damascus regime, its former ally.

"It's becoming increasingly clear that the Syrian uprising transcends the strategic interests of Iran and Turkey, as it has become the battleground between the Sunni and Shiite communities throughout the Middle East," observed Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations and Middle East studies at New York University's Center for Global Affairs.

"The new political order that will eventually emerge in Syria will determine not only the ultimate success or failure of Iran's aspirations to become the region's hegemon but whether or not the Sunni Arab world will maintain its dominance.

"Hence, the conflict will be long, costly and bloody, reflecting the troubled history between the two sides that has extended over a millennium," Ben-Meir wrote in a Huffington Post analysis published April 13.

Sectarian conflict is simmering in Iraq in the wake of the completion of the U.S. military withdrawal Dec. 18, 2011, largely involving wide-ranging bombings by al-Qaida's Sunni fighters against the country's Shiite majority.

Sunni radicals from Iraq are reported to be among al-Qaida fighters moving into Syria, Iraq's northwestern neighbor, to join their co-religionists battling to bring down the Damascus regime dominated by the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam backed by Tehran.

There's growing alarm among Iraq's minority Sunnis, who dominated power under Saddam Hussein, that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite with links to Tehran, is seeking to impose a new dictatorship after decades of brutal repression of Shiites by Saddam's Baathists.

The Saudis and other Sunni states, such as the Persian Gulf monarchies, Egypt and Jordan, fear Iran will dominate Iraq, with its Shiite majority, now that the Americans have departed and are widely considered to be funding the Sunni militants.

Sectarian divisions in Lebanon, where the Iran- and Syria-backed Shiite Hezbollah is locked in an increasingly bitter political struggle with Western-supporter Sunnis and their allies, have been dangerously sharpened since the Syrian uprising began March 15, 2011.

Indeed, these divisions have never been far from the surface since the end of Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.

Those divisions were infinitely widened in 2011 after a United Nations-mandated tribunal charged Hezbollah activists with the Feb. 15, 2005, Beirut assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's foremost statesman and the main leader of its Sunnis.

Hezbollah denies the charges and has warned it will "cut off the hands" of anyone who seeks to apprehend four of its members, two of them senior figures, indicted for the bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others.

Hezbollah supports the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, while most Lebanese Sunnis oppose it.

Under Hariri, they campaigned for Syria to withdraw the quasi-occupation forces Damascus had deployed in Lebanon since 1976. After Hariri was slain, international pressure finally forced the Syrians to pull out, although they remain a powerful influence in Lebanon.

Shiites and Sunnis have been slaughtering each other in Pakistan for years and the Pakistani Sunni militants of Lashkar-e Jhavangi recently claimed responsibility for bomb attacks against Shiites in the Afghan cities of Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kandahar.

The Pakistani group, known as LeJ, has close ties to al-Qaida.

In January, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned against a regional sectarian conflict.

"There are some who are willing to start a regional Cold War," he declared. "We're determined to prevent that. Sectarian tensions would be suicide for the whole region."

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Turkey mulls invoking NATO ties over Syria shelling: Clinton
Paris (AFP) April 19, 2012 - Turkey is considering invoking the NATO alliance's mutual defence treaty over "outrageous" Syrian shelling along its border, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday.

"Turkey is considering formally invoking Article Four of the North Atlantic Treaty," Clinton said, at a meeting in Paris of senior envoys from countries seeking to pressure Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime.

Article Four states that members "will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened".

It is less strong than Article Five of the NATO treaty, under which members invoke the right to "individual or collective self-defence", but would be a step towards a collective response to alleged Syrian aggression.

China says considering sending observers to Syria
Beijing (AFP) April 19, 2012 - China said Thursday it was considering sending observers to monitor a Syrian ceasefire that came into force last week but is under threat as violence escalates.

"China is earnestly looking into whether to send observers to Syria or not," foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told reporters at a regular briefing.

His comments come after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said China and Russia were currently isolated on the Syrian issue, but predicted the two countries would eventually join the rest of the international community against Damascus.

China and Russia both drew international criticism earlier this year for vetoing two UN Security Council resolutions on the Syria crisis which were critical of President Bashar al-Assad.

The two countries have since backed UN special envoy Kofi Annan's efforts to bring peace to Syria in the form of a six-point proposal agreed by Damascus that includes the ceasefire and withdrawal of troops.

But there have been reports of fresh violence in Syria -- where over 9,000 people have died in the past 13 months of fighting -- despite the ceasefire.

A small advance UN mission has been dispatched to Syria to monitor the ceasefire, but UN chief Ban Ki-moon has called for 300 unarmed observers to be sent to the conflict-torn country.

Meanwhile, foreign ministers from 14 countries are gathering in Paris on Thursday to discuss Syria in a meeting that China is not expected to attend.

In an earlier interview with Europe 1 radio, Sarkozy said China and Russia "do not like being isolated".

"And when we gather the major countries to say 'here is the direction we are going in', with our Arab allies, Russia and China's isolation on the Syria question will not last," he said.



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WAR REPORT
Syria pledges to respect Annan's peace plan in full: China
Beijing (AFP) April 18, 2012
China said Wednesday Syria's foreign minister had pledged to respect UN envoy Kofi Annan's peace plan and cooperate with a UN team sent to monitor a fragile ceasefire in the restive state. Walid Muallem's comments to his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi come after fresh violence was reported in Syria - where over 9,000 people have died in the past 13 months of fighting - despite the ceasefi ... read more


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