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WAR REPORT
Syria ceasefire takes effect under US-Russia deal
By Karam al-Masri and Maher al-Mounes
Aleppo, Syria (AFP) Sept 12, 2016


Syria: five years of efforts to end the conflict
A ceasefire brokered by Moscow and Washington is due to take effect in Syria at sundown on Monday, the latest bid to end fighting between government forces and non-jihadist rebels.

There have been multiple previous attempts since the conflict erupted in 2011 but all have ended in failure.

Here is a recap:

Arab initiatives

November 2, 2011: The Arab League says it has reached an agreement with Syria to end the fighting, free detainees and withdraw troops from cities.

No clauses are respected. The League later suspends Syria and approves unprecedented sanctions.

In early 2012, Damascus formally rejects the plan and says it is determined to crush the rebellion.

Annan plan

April 12, 2012: UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan manages to establish a truce, but it collapses within hours.

Geneva I

June 30, 2012: An "action group" meeting in Geneva says it has reached agreement on a Syrian transition of power.

But those present -- Arab states, Britain, China, France, Russia, Turkey and the United States -- have different interpretations of the deal.

Washington says it marks the start of a "post-Assad" period, referring to President Bashar al-Assad. Beijing and Moscow maintain that it is up to the Syrians to determine their own future.

Chemical weapons deal

September 14, 2013: Russia and the United States agree to dismantle Syria's chemical arsenal after an attack -- widely blamed on Assad's regime -- kills hundreds of people near Damascus.

The last-minute deal averts threatened US-led air strikes against the regime, which denies carrying out the attack.

Geneva II

January 22-31, 2014: The Russia-backed Syrian government and US-supported opposition figures hold talks in Switzerland without results.

February 15: UN mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, who replaced Annan, ends the talks. He resigns on May 13 after more than 20 months of fruitless efforts and is replaced in July by Staffan de Mistura.

Russian offensive/Vienna talks

October 30, 2015 : A month after Russian air strikes begin in Syria at the request of Damascus, 17 countries including Russia, the United States and for the first time Iran, meet in Vienna.

The regime and opposition are absent from the talks, which break up amid deep disagreement over Assad's fate.

November 14: World diplomats gathered in Vienna agree on a fixed calendar for Syria's future but remain sharply at odds over Assad.

UN resolution passed

December 18, 2015: For the first time, the UN Security Council unanimously adopts a plan for a political solution, including negotiations between the opposition and the regime as well as a ceasefire. The text provides for a transitional government within six months and elections within 18 months.

Failure in Geneva

February 3, 2016: UN-sponsored talks between the opposition and government are suspended amid a regime offensive against the rebels in the Damascus region, backed by Russian air power.

'Cessation of hostilities'

February 27, 2016: A US-Russia brokered "cessation of hostilities" comes into force. Accepted by the regime, the opposition and Syrian Kurdish forces, it excludes the main jihadist factions.

Indirect negotiations

March 14-24: A first round of indirect negotiations between the regime and opposition takes place under UN auspices, without making progress.

April 13: Peace talks open in Geneva. On April 18, the opposition postpones its "formal participation" in the talks in protest over escalating violence.

New Russian-American accord

September 9: US and Russian diplomatic chiefs John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov reach a deal on a ceasefire and possible unprecedented cooperation on military action against jihadists.

A ceasefire brokered by Russia and the United States took effect in Syria at sundown Monday, despite scepticism over how long the truce in the five-year conflict would hold.

The initial 48-hour truce came into force at 7:00 pm local time (1600 GMT) across Syria except in areas held by jihadists like the Islamic State group.

AFP correspondents in Syria's devastated second city Aleppo, divided between a rebel-held east and regime-controlled west since mid-2012, said fighting appeared to have stopped as the ceasefire took effect.

A final rocket was fired from the east into government areas just five minutes before 7:00 pm, while rebel neighbourhoods had not been hit by bombardments for about two hours, they said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said it was "quiet" on nearly all fronts.

"I was checking the time all day, waiting for it to turn 7:00," said Khaled al-Muraweh, a 38-year-old shopkeeper in the Furqan district of western Aleppo.

"I hope the ceasefire holds so I can see my brother who lives in the opposition-held part of the city."

In Aleppo's east, residents roamed the streets to celebrate the start of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha.

"This was the calmest day since I got married a week ago," said Shadi Saber, 26, as he waited for a shave at the barber shop.

Syria's armed forces immediately announced a seven-day "freeze" on military operations, but opposition forces have yet to formally sign on.

The deal's fragility was underscored just hours before sundown when President Bashar al-Assad vowed to retake the whole country from "terrorists".

- 'We aren't very hopeful' -

The agreement, announced Friday after marathon talks between Russia and the US, has been billed as the best chance yet to halt Syria's five-year war, which has left 290,000 people dead.

Under the deal, fighting will halt across areas not held by jihadists and aid deliveries to besieged areas will begin, with government and rebel forces ensuring unimpeded humanitarian access to Aleppo in particular.

Rebels broke a regime siege of the east in August but Assad loyalists restored the blockade on September 8.

The ceasefire will be renewed every 48 hours and, if it holds for a week, Moscow and Washington will begin unprecedented joint targeting of jihadist forces.

Many in the Pentagon are deeply uneasy about the proposed collaboration, with one defence official saying "the proof will be in the pudding."

Senior Russian military official Sergei Rudskoi said the "cessation of hostilities is being resumed across all the territory of Syria".

But Moscow would "continue to carry out strikes against terrorist targets", he said.

Russia's deputy foreign minister, Mikhail Bogdanov, told state-run media that UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura could be inviting parties to new peace talks "at the very beginning of October".

Just before the truce came into force, the Observatory reported three people killed in regime shelling on the rebel town of Douma near Damascus and another 13 killed in unidentified raids in Idlib province.

Bombardment rocked the central town of Talbisseh all day, an activist there said, finally quieting down as the truce came into effect.

"We spent Eid in our bomb shelters and basements today," said Hassan Abu Nuh, referring to the Muslim feast.

"For the past half hour, we haven't heard anything, but we aren't very hopeful... For Eid, I'm just planning on staying alive."

- Rebels demand 'guarantees' -

But Syria's opposition and rebels remain deeply sceptical and have yet to endorse the deal.

Salem al-Muslet, spokesman for the High Negotiations Committee opposition umbrella group demanded "guarantees" on which rebel groups would be targeted.

Rebels on Sunday sent a letter to Washington saying they would "deal positively with the idea of the ceasefire" but listed several "concerns" and stopped short of a full endorsement.

"The clauses of the agreement that have been shared with us do not include any clear guarantees or monitoring mechanisms... or repercussions if there are truce violations," they said.

Ahmad al-Saoud, who heads the US-backed Division 13 rebel group which signed the letter, said they had received no response.

Late Monday, the Istanbul-based opposition National Coalition said efforts to alleviate suffering were "a positive step," but reiterated the rebel call for "clear monitoring mechanisms" for the truce.

A crucial part of the deal calls for rebels to distance themselves from the jihadist Fateh al-Sham Front -- previously known as Al-Nusra Front -- before joint US-Russian operations begin.

But Fateh al-Sham cooperates closely with many of Syria's rebels, including the powerful Ahrar al-Sham faction, which on Sunday issued a scathing condemnation of the Russian-US deal.

Syria's government and its allies including Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement have backed the truce.

But on Monday, Assad made clear he was intent on recapturing all of Syria.

"The Syrian state is determined to recover every area from the terrorists," he said as he toured Daraya, a former rebel stronghold that surrendered last month after a four-year government siege.

"The armed forces are continuing their work, relentlessly and without hesitation, regardless of internal or external circumstances," he said.


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