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THE STANS
Taliban changing strategy in Kandahar: governor
by Staff Writers
Montreal (AFP) June 7, 2011

Taliban militants have changed their strategy in southern Afghanistan and are attacking towns as their support dwindles among the local population, the governor of Kandahar province said.

"The insurgents are changing their strategy. They are coming to the city, they are just doing sporadic assassinations," Tooryalai Wesa told AFP on the sidelines of an international forum in Montreal.

"They don't have the resources, they don't have the luxury they have before," he said, adding that the Taliban's revenue from poppy harvests had been cut as their ties with local farmers were less solid than before.

"People are not helping them, before the governance was not present in most of the remote areas. Now, we are there... Now the people see the governance and they are not supporting the insurgents."

Wesa, who was attending the International Economic Forum of the Americas, said security was improving in the south, which has been a Taliban stronghold.

"Last year at this time we were unable to go to some of the districts, to some of the villages," he said, adding he had even been forced to visit some villages by plane. "But now I drive... The districts are doing pretty well."

Canada is due to end its combat mission working alongside US-led troops in Kandahar by the end of next month, although Canadian troops will stay in the country to help train the Afghan security forces.

The "Canadian presence in Kandahar was an important asset... but I am certain... their position is going to be filled by some international forces. Mostly the Americans will be filling their position," said Wesa, who lived for some time in Canada.

He was speaking as US President Barack Obama mulls a calendar for withdrawing American forces from Afghanistan, having promised that a long awaited drawdown of some of the 100,000 troops will begin next month.

"I am not sure that President Obama will withdraw his troops if Afghanistan and Kandahar are still in the chaos and in an insecure situation," Wesa said.

Wesa said US and Afghan officials had held talks to discuss the situation, and he predicted "the international (community) will not abandon Afghanistan."

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday the looming US decision on troop drawdowns in Afghanistan could include a timeline for pulling out the 30,000 "surge" forces deployed last year.

But Gates, bidding an emotional goodbye to US troops in Afghanistan before he leaves office this month, offered a rebuttal to those who argue the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2 and a worrisome budget deficit require a major reduction in the US force in Afghanistan.

"We've still got a ways to go," Gates said of the war effort.

"I think we shouldn't let up on the gas too much, at least for the next few months," he told troops Monday at a base in the eastern province of Ghazni.

earlier related report
Obama says sorry to Karzai for civilian deaths
Washington (AFP) June 8, 2011 - US President Barack Obama on Wednesday expressed his "sorrow" to Afghan President Hamid Karzai over recent civilian casualties, and discussed his deliberations on an impending troop drawdown.

The two leaders spoke for an hour by secure video conference amid another spike in tensions between Washington and Kabul and as political intrigue mounts over the size and scope of troop withdrawals Obama has promised for July.

"The president expressed his sorrow over tragic civilian casualties, most recently in Helmand province," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

"Both leaders noted that the Taliban are responsible for the great majority of civilian losses, and agreed that every loss of civilian life is a tragedy and undermines our mission that focuses on protecting the population."

A furious Karzai last week issued a "last warning" to the US military to avoid "arbitrary and unnecessary" operations that kill civilians, after he said 14 people died in an air strike in Helmand province.

Local officials said the dead included five girls, seven boys and two women.

The International Security Assistance Force put the death toll at nine and apologized, while saying the strike was carried out after insurgents who had earlier killed a US marine hid in a compound and carried on firing.

Western military figures say that hiding among civilians is a regular Taliban tactic when they are being pursued by international forces.

The issue of civilian casualties has long been a bone of political contention between successive US administrations and Karzai, who is struggling to win hearts and minds of Afghans and deprive the Taliban of propaganda wins.

The United Nations says Afghan civilian deaths in the war increased 15 percent to a record high of 2,777 last year. More than three-quarters of the dead were killed in violence blamed on insurgents.

Carney said Obama and Karzai also agreed Wednesday on "their shared commitment to Afghan-led reconciliation, progress on forging an enduring US-Afghan strategic partnership, and transition to Afghan leadership for security."

Obama has not yet decided on the "pace and the scope" of the drawdown, he said, as competing visions of the size of the future US mission in Afghanistan are aired in the US press as Obama deliberates on next steps.

The Pentagon, led by outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates, argue that US-led forces are nearing a "decisive blow" against the Taliban, after 10 years of conflict sparked by the September attacks in 2001.

Reports have long suggested that Obama could make a token withdrawal of around 5,000 troops from the 30,000 strong "surge" force that he sent to the country in December 2009. Around 100,000 US troops are in Afghanistan.

But there is increasing disquiet on Capitol Hill and in the US foreign policy community over the cost, in human and financial terms, of the conflict and the chances of forging a functioning Afghan state.

So the president will likely call on his generals to at least present options for larger drawdowns for him to consider.

Doubts about the war were deepened with the publication of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee report which cast grave doubt on the success of the international nation-building effort in Afghanistan.

The report also suggested that the planned departure of all US and international troops from Afghanistan in 2014 could spark an economic collapse in the fragile nation.

Afghanistan has been the top recipient of US aid over the past ten years, with some $18.8 billion flowing from Washington to projects meant to stabilize the war-torn country and win "hearts and minds" from a stubborn insurgency.

Carney disputed parts of the report but said Obama agrees that the need for projects that can outlive the presence of "is an issue."

"That's why so many of our efforts are focused on building institutions so that Afghans can sustain the progress that has been made over these last several years," he said.




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Crocker faces Senate committee
Washington (UPI) Jun 8, 2011 - Diplomacy is crucial to achieving long-term goals in Afghanistan because "you can't kill your way out of an insurgency," Ryan Crocker, nominated to be the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, told a Senate committee Wednesday.

Crocker, the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, was pressed by members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which is debating Crocker's nomination, to define what success in Afghanistan would mean.

He responded that one meaning was "governance that is good enough to ensure that the country doesn't degenerate again into a safe haven for al-Qaida."

He is no stranger to Afghanistan. In 2002, he helped re-open the U.S. Embassy in Kabul.

He has a long history of service in the Middle East. During more than 37 years as a diplomat, Crocker also served as ambassador to Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, and Pakistan. He retired in 2009 until U.S. President Barack Obama asked him to serve again.

While he was ambassador to Iraq from 2007-09, Crocker was credited in working with U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus to improve counterinsurgency efforts and state-building.

In Afghanistan, Crocker said, "sustainable stability" will require financial and institutional support from other nations after the United States' expected troop withdrawal in three years.

"Beyond 2014 there will be a requirement for outside assistance from the international community," he said. "This is not an American problem only or an American obligation."

One important task in getting an Afghan economy on its feet is supporting the agriculture sector, which accounts for 80 percent of legal employment in the nation, Crocker said.

The United States and its allies are also making progress in handing control of the nation over to its native government, he said. The Afghan police and military are expected to have a combined force of 300,000 people by October of this year, he said.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., chairman of the committee, said Crocker's nomination comes at a critical juncture in the war.

"If all we do is the current paradigm," Kerry said, "we're not going to find a very successful road here."

Kerry said he expects Crocker's nomination to quickly move to the full Senate for a vote.

At the start of the hearing, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., introduced Crocker to the committee, saying the diplomat's "stellar record of service precedes him and speaks for itself."

Crocker said he was under no illusions about how difficult the task ahead will be.

"If Iraq was hard -- and it was hard -- Afghanistan in many respects is harder," he said.





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THE STANS
Gates stakes out dissent in Afghan troop debate
Kabul (AFP) June 7, 2011
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates is locking horns with White House aides over Afghan troop numbers as he nears the end of his tenure, with the debate over war strategy playing out in the media. The run-up to a decision by President Barack Obama this month on a US troop drawdown has once again exposed fissures between military leaders and White House officials over the war, which first came ... read more


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