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The Iranian Nuclear Deadlock Going Nowhere Fast Part One

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by Pyotr Goncharov
Moscow (UPI) April 28, 2008
The latest meeting in Shanghai of the six international mediators in the Iranian nuclear issue has been a fiasco, as is suggested by the meager news reports.

The participating countries, the five permanent U.N. Security Council members plus Germany, again failed to find common ground. What happened?

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the Republican front-runner in the U.S. presidential race, could have caught a glimpse of what was happening at that meeting behind closed doors.

In an interview this week with ABC News, McCain emphasized his belief in the decisive role of tough sanctions in resolving the problem of Iran's nuclear program. He favors tough sanctions against the Islamic republic to force it to halt its uranium enrichment program -- which has not only aroused international concerns, but made the world doubt it might be for purely peaceful purposes as Iran claims. The senator said the sanctions up until now have never been sufficiently tough, as the Russians blocked all efforts of Washington and the European Union in the Security Council.

McCain's position in favor of toughening sanctions against Iran is not news. Moreover, for some reason he clearly echoed the ideas considered by Russian and U.S. experts on Iranian nuclear problems who met in Moscow on April 14 as part of the Luxembourg Forum.

One of the ideas voiced in Moscow was that we should either recognize Iran as a nuclear state, that is, a state that has nuclear weapons, or opt for tough sanctions, possibly complete isolation. The arguments the experts used to prove their point were also very similar to what McCain said: The Iranian economy is weak, despite the inflow of petrodollars, because it is 40 percent dependent on foreign refineries and is therefore very vulnerable to economic sanctions.

Admittedly, along with discussing sanctions, the Moscow meeting also focused on investments that could be attractive for Iran and other encouragement options. That approach is contrary to McCain's position. The participants in the six-party talks do not see eye to eye on the appropriate ratio of punishment and encouragement. Therefore, the key reason why their latest meeting was a fiasco was their failure to work out a stick and carrot policy that would suit everyone.

The Russian side was possibly to blame, which McCain faithfully pointed out by saying that the Russians blocked all efforts.

In fact, the senator was right. The Russian Foreign Ministry said before the meeting that the talks should focus on developing new "positive" proposals for Iran this time.

Next: Future directions for the talks

(Pyotr Goncharov is a political commentator for RIA Novosti. This article was originally published by RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's alone.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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