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The Iraqi Balance Sheet: One Year On

U.S. and Iraqi government officials believe political progress is the only way to convince Sunnis to lay down their arms; an insurgency can not be beaten militarily without leveling the entire country. If the new Iraqi government protects their political and civic rights, gives them power, and advances their economic interests, they could be convinced to give up the fight, officials say.

Washington (UPI) Jun 28, 2005
A year ago today, Amb. Paul Bremer, then viceroy of Iraq, handed over the keys to the country to an appointed government, conferring on it sovereignty after more than a year of occupation.

The ongoing war there has now cost the United States more than $200 billion. As of last Thursday, there had been 1,738 American deaths, 1,341 killed in combat. Of those, just 109 occurred during the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. The vast majority occurred after President George W. Bush declared the end to major combat operations.

Bush takes to the airwaves on this first anniversary to speak from Fort Bragg, N.C., as new polls indicate falling support for both the war and his leadership of it. "Amid all this violence," he says, "I know Americans ask the question: Is the sacrifice worth it?"

What are the facts?

In just one year, much has been achieved by Iraqis - still under occupation - but an exceptional amount of work remains to be done before the country can stand on its own, economically and politically, and stand up against the violent factions waging an insurgency that has claimed at least 11,000 innocents.

The foremost achievement was the relatively peaceful election held in January for a transitional national parliament. Despite forecasts of widespread violence, there were no spectacular attacks. It was the first truly democratic election in Iraq's modern history.

However, it was largely boycotted by Sunnis - many of whom objected to participating because of the U.S.-led occupation and many who were threatened with death or injury if they did participate.

Political progress has been spotty since: the transitional government dragged its feet in agreeing to heads of state and populating ministry positions.

A Kurd now serves as president, and Shiites serve as prime minister and deputy president. Kurds represent about 20 percent of the population, and have close ties to the United States as the beneficiaries of a decade-long no-fly-zone enforcement.

Shiites comprise about 60 percent of the population, and - though the majority - were largely excluded from power under Saddam Hussein's government - dominated by Sunnis and especially by members of his own tribe.

Because of their boycott of the election, Sunnis - who account for about 30 percent of Iraq's 25 million-strong population - have only about 6 percent of the seats in Parliament. A Sunni was appointed defense minister in May.

Only in the last weeks has an agreement been struck with Sunnis about their participation in the committee charged with drafting of a constitution, which was appointed by the elected government.

Fifteen Sunni members have joined the two Sunnis already on the original 55-member committee, and another 10 will provide advice. Decisions will be made by the 70-member committee and ratified by the original 55.

The committee has a deadline of August 15 to put forth a constitution, with a national referendum slated for September. A new round of national elections is scheduled to take place in December. If the population rejects the constitution, the process would be set back a year.

Built into the original schedule is the possibility of a six-month delay - a postponement that U.S. military officials last week warned would come with consequences: the continuation of the bloody insurgency.

The majority of the insurgency is Sunni, motivated by national pride, revenge for the war, money, fear for their political future, and in some cases religious fervor.

Their numbers are swelled by foreign fighters traveling to wage jihad - Islamic holy war - in Iraq. The foreigners provide funding, technical know-how, and most of the suicide bombers now wracking Iraq's security forces and civilian population.

U.S. and Iraqi government officials believe political progress is the only way to convince Sunnis to lay down their arms; an insurgency can not be beaten militarily without leveling the entire country.

If the new Iraqi government protects their political and civic rights, gives them power, and advances their economic interests, they could be convinced to give up the fight, officials say.

For that to happen, however, Iraqis across the country will need to see their fortunes and quality of life improving under the transitional government.

That task has fallen largely on the shoulders of the United States.

In November 2003, the United States pledged $18.6 billion to the reconstruction of Iraq. The money is earmarked primarily for physical reconstruction: building and repairing power plants and dams, restoring ministry offices and outfitting hospitals with equipment and medicine.

But less than $3 billion of that has actually been spent, according to the contracting office in charge.

Another $9.1 billion is obligated - that means, attached specifically to a project scheduled to be completed in the future.

Many of the projects undertaken have been small, meant to make immediate impacts in local communities to quickly buy good will and patience. Nearly 2,500 reconstruction projects have been started, and at least 1,364 completed thus far. About 46,000 Iraqis have had temporary employment on the construction projects.

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Washington (UPI) June 27, 2005
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