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WAR REPORT
Trump stuns allies by ordering US troops home from Syria
By Thomas WATKINS
Washington (AFP) Dec 20, 2018

Syria withdrawal the latest twist for Trump
President Donald Trump's decision announced Wednesday to withdraw US troops from Syria marks his latest abrupt twist on the war, over which he has been inconsistent even by his standards.

Trump, taking to his favorite medium of Twitter, declared the defeat of the Islamic State extremist movement, which he said was the sole reason for the presence of 2,000 troops in Syria.

His stance paradoxically puts him in line with his predecessor Barack Obama, whom Trump has strongly criticized. Obama, questioning the wisdom of US intervention, ordered a force for the narrow goal of fighting the group also known as ISIS.

Here are some of the positions taken by Trump on Syria:

- Strongly opposes air strikes -

Before his election, the real estate tycoon was firmly in the anti-war camp and opposed any US military action against President Bashar al-Assad.

In late 2013, when Obama was pondering whether to enforce his own "red line" by launching strikes to punish Assad's use of chemical weapons, Trump warned to "stay out of Syria."

"AGAIN, TO OUR VERY FOOLISH LEADER, DO NOT ATTACK SYRIA - IF YOU DO MANY VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN & FROM THAT FIGHT THE U.S. GETS NOTHING!" he declared in an all upper-case salvo on Twitter.

- Assails refugees -

As his once improbable candidacy gathered steam, Trump found a major political issue on Syria -- assailing refugees and demanding a sweeping ban on Muslims entering the United States.

Again on Twitter, Trump alleged that Syrian refugees "pouring into our great country" could belong to the IS group and warned of the "destruction of civilization as we know it."

He at the same time took a stance on Syria that was not too different from Obama, saying that the Islamic State group rather than Assad posed the bigger threat.

- Orders air strikes -

When a sarin gas attack in April 2017 in the town of Khan Sheikhun killed 83 people, Trump shed his pre-presidential opposition to punishing Assad.

Casting himself as showing more resolve than Obama, Trump ordered 59 cruise missiles to strike a Syrian air base.

The attack was a one-off but the tone also hardened. Then secretary of state Rex Tillerson suggested that the US forces provided leverage to pressure Assad into peace talks with the armed opposition.

- Withdrawing 'soon' -

Trump shifted course sharply again in March this year when, in an aside during a speech that took US generals by surprise, he declared, "We'll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now."

Returning to his pre-election stance, Trump said the United States had wasted $7 trillion on US wars in the Middle East.

But within weeks Trump was incensed and talked of punishing Assad and its ally Russia after a fresh alleged chemical weapons attack in the town of Douma.

- Focus on Iran -

Trump's team at the same time stepped up another goal in the region -- curbing the influence of Iran, a major foe of US allies Saudi Arabia and Israel.

National security adviser John Bolton warned in September that the United States would stay in Syria until the departure of Iran -- a key backer of Assad.

James Jeffrey, the US special representative on Syria, later clarified that the continued US role would not necessarily be military.

- Islamic State 'defeated' -

With Syria largely at an uneasy truce by the end of 2018, the United States said it was looking at a longer-term effort.

Brett McGurk, the US special envoy on defeating ISIS, told reporters on December 11 that "nobody is declaring a mission accomplished" and "you can't just defeat their physical space and then leave."

But a US official told AFP on Wednesday that the United States was planning a full withdrawal, after Trump tweeted: "We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency."

US allies were stunned Thursday after President Donald Trump declared victory over the Islamic State group in Syria and abruptly ordered the withdrawal of US ground troops from the country.

The decision runs counter to long-established US policy for Syria and the region. It blindsided lawmakers, the Pentagon and international allies alike.

Britain and France warned on Thursday that the fight against jihadists in Syria was not finished.

Trump earlier said: "We've won against ISIS," in a short video posted on Twitter.

"We've beaten them and we've beaten them badly. We've taken back the land. And now it's time for our troops to come back home."

A withdrawal could have major geopolitical ramifications, and plunges into uncertainty the fate of US-backed Kurdish fighters who have been tackling Islamic State jihadists, thousands of whom are thought to remain in Syria.

A US official told AFP that Trump's decision was finalized Tuesday.

"Full withdrawal, all means all," the official said when asked if the troops would be pulled from across Syria.

Currently, about 2,000 US forces are in the country, most of them on a train-and-advise mission to support local forces fighting IS.

Pentagon officials scrambled for a reaction. A spokeswoman eventually said the Defense Department had "started the process" of bringing troops home.

Lawmakers assailed Trump's decision, saying it could embolden Ankara to attack US-backed Kurdish fighters.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, said the president's decision was unwise and put the Kurds "at risk."

Democratic Senator Jack Reed said it amounted to a "betrayal" of the Kurds that "provides further evidence of President Trump's inability to lead on the world stage."

Blasting the move as a "huge Obama-like mistake," Graham said "I fear it will lead to devastating consequences for our nation, the region and throughout the world."

Most US troops are stationed in northern Syria, though a small contingent is based at a garrison in Al-Tanaf, near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.

Trump has previously voiced skepticism about the US presence in Syria, saying in March he wanted to bring troops home "soon."

But military advisors and international allies warned Trump against a precipitous pullout, and he later acquiesced to an indefinite Syria mission.

The US official would not provide a withdrawal timeline, saying only it would come "as quickly as possible."

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the US-led coalition that includes dozens of nations would continue fighting the jihadists.

"These victories over ISIS in Syria do not signal the end of the Global Coalition or its campaign," Sanders said in a statement.

The Pentagon refused to say what effect the troop withdrawal would have on air operations in Syria that have been ongoing since late 2014.

A senior administration official said Trump's decision was consistent with comments he has made for years.

"The notion that anyone within the administration was caught unaware, I would challenge that," the official said.

- Fate of Kurdish fighters? -

A large contingent of the main US-backed, anti-IS fighting force in Syria, an alliance known as the Syrian Democratic forces (SDF), is Kurdish. Turkey terms it a "terrorist" group.

Ankara has said it plans to launch an operation against the Kurdish militia known as the YPG (Kurdish People's Protection Units).

While the YPG has spearheaded Washington's fight against IS, US support has strained relations between the NATO allies.

The US decision to withdraw from Syria marks a remarkable development not just for the Kurds, but for years-old US doctrine in the region.

Only last week, Brett McGurk, the special envoy to defeat IS, said "nobody is declaring a mission accomplished."

"If we've learned one thing over the years, enduring defeat of a group like (IS) means you can't just defeat their physical space and then leave," he said.

- 'Short-sighted and naive' -

A statement issued by the British government, which has long supported the anti-IS campaign in Syria, said "much remains to be done" against the jihadists.

"We must not lose sight of the threat they pose. Even without territory, (IS) will remain a threat," the statement read.

Junior defence minister Tobias Ellwood was more blunt, retweeting a message from Trump that the jihadists had been defeated in Syria with the words: "I strongly disagree.

"It has morphed into other forms of extremism and the threat is very much alive."

The Times newspaper on Thursday reported that Britain had not been informed of the decision before Trump announced it.

France said Thursday it will maintain its participation in the coalition fighting IS forces in Syria.

European Affairs Minister Nathalie Loiseau said "the fight against terrorism is not over."

A US presence in Syria is seen as key to pushing against Russian and Iranian influence. Pro-Iran militias have supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Moscow in 2015 intervened in the conflict to prop him up.

Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, called the decision "extraordinarily short-sighted and naive."

"This is not just a dream scenario for ISIS, but also for Russia, Iran and the Assad regime, all of whom stand to benefit substantially from a US withdrawal," Lister said.


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WAR REPORT
Russia slashes Syria military flights
Moscow (AFP) Dec 18, 2018
Russia has cut its military flights in Syria from more than 100 per day to fewer than four a week, the defence minister said Tuesday, in another sign the country's conflict is winding down. Russia launched air strikes in Syria in support of long-term ally President Bashar al-Assad in September 2015. Russian support helped Assad's forces reclaim swathes of territory once in the hands of opposition fighters and Islamic extremists. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told an annual meeting o ... read more

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