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Trump warns Russia missiles 'coming' after Syria attack
By Dave Clark
Washington, United States (AFP) April 12, 2018

Syria army vacates main defence buildings in Damascus: monitor
Beirut, Lebanon (AFP) April 11, 2018 - Syria's army has evacuated key defence buildings in Damascus over fears they might be targeted by Western strikes in response to an alleged chemical attack, a monitor said Wednesday.

The United States and France have warned of a strong response after an alleged deadly chemical attack by the regime on the rebel-held town of Douma on Saturday.

"The buildings of the ministry of defence and the army headquarters have been empty for two days," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.

Regime forces have also evacuated military airports as well as the bases of the elite Fourth Division and Republican Guard outside the capital, the Observatory said.

There was no immediate confirmation from the Damascus regime.

A source with pro-regime forces told AFP: "The Syrian army has taken protective measures especially for military airports and bases."

The source said they expected the Americans would inform the Russians before any strike.

US President Donald Trump said "missiles will be coming" in response to the alleged chemical attack, which rescuers say killed more than 40 people.

Last year, Trump launched a cruise missile strike against a Syrian air base in retaliation for a sarin attack the United Nations later pinned on Assad.

More than 350,000 people have been killed in Syria's conflict since it started in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests.

It has since spiralled into a complex war involving world powers.

Pentagon 'ready' to provide military options for Syria: Mattis
Washington, United States (AFP) April 11, 2018 - Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Wednesday the Pentagon is ready to provide options for a Syria strike in response to a suspected chemical attack, but noted the US and its allies are still gathering information.

"We are still assessing the intelligence, ourselves and our allies, we are still working on this," Mattis told reporters when asked if he had seen enough evidence to blame President Bashar al-Assad's regime for the alleged chemical attack in Douma.

"We stand ready to provide military options, if they're appropriate, as the president determined."

President Donald Trump vowed on Twitter that missiles would be launched at Syria following Saturday's alleged chemical attack, all but guaranteeing a military strike against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

The Russian army has accused the White Helmets civil defense organization in Syria of staging a chemical weapons attack in Douma that has led to calls for further Western intervention.

Trump and other Western leaders have vowed a quick and forceful response to Saturday's alleged gas attack, which rescue workers say killed more than 40 people.

The United States, Britain and France have argued the attack bears all the hallmarks of a strike ordered by the regime, which the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has been blamed for previous attacks.

Last year, Trump launched a cruise missile strike against a Syrian air base in retaliation for a sarin attack the United Nations later pinned on Assad.

US President Donald Trump warned Wednesday that "missiles will be coming" in response to an alleged chemical attack in Syria, as the UN chief urged world powers to stop a face-off with Russia from spiraling out of control.

With punitive US military action seemingly imminent, Russia scrambled to deflect blame from its ally Bashar al-Assad and, according to a monitor group, Syrian forces evacuated key defense buildings in Damascus.

Trump's warlike tweets came in response to a warning from Russia's ambassador to Beirut, who took to a television network run by the armed group Hezbollah to declare that any US missiles would be shot down "as well as the sources they were fired from."

If the US action follows the pattern of a previous punitive strike on Syria last year, it will begin with a salvo of cruise missiles fired from American warships in the Mediterranean, as Trump implied when he tweeted they would be "nice, new and 'smart.'"

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis as well as CIA director Mike Pompeo huddled at the White House on Wednesday to discuss options and game out the situation.

"The president's national security team met today. That meeting was chaired by the vice president to discuss a number of options," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said.

With the UN Security Council failing thus far to find a diplomatic solution, Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned Wednesday time was running out.

"Today, I called the Ambassadors of the five Permanent Members of the Security Council to reiterate my deep concern about the risks of the current impasse and stressed the need to avoid the situation spiraling out of control," he said, referring to the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain.

Moscow and Washington have so far vetoed each other's motions to set up an international investigation into chemical weapons use.

Opponents of unilateral US action called an emergency closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council for later Thursday.

Meanwhile, Moscow said the formerly rebel-held district of Eastern Ghouta -- including Douma, the target of Saturday's attack -- had been "totally stabilized" and would soon be patrolled by Russian military police.

But the Russian army continued to deny their side's latest victory came after Assad launched a chemical attack on the last rebel-held pocket of the enclave in the Damascus suburbs, instead accusing the White Helmets civil defense organization of staging the massacre.

Trump's spokeswoman dismissed this idea, and pointedly refused to acknowledge that concern about the risks of a direct confrontation with Russia would hold the US military back.

"The intelligence provided certainly paints a different picture," she said. "The president holds Syria and Russia responsible for this chemical weapons attack."

But while the Russian president's lieutenants continued to up the ante with threats and allegations, Vladimir Putin himself adopted a more statesmanlike tone, in remarks to new ambassadors presenting their credentials at the Kremlin.

"The situation in the world is becoming more and more chaotic but all the same we hope that common sense will finally prevail and international relations will take a constructive path," he said.

Trump's tweets were more belligerent -- he told Russia "You shouldn't be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!" -- and declared that US relations with Russia have plunged to a historic low.

But he notably also said there was "no reason for this," reiterated his hope for talks with Putin to halt a new arms race, and blamed his domestic political opponents for poisoning ties.

Assad's Damascus regime, which has long accused Washington of supporting its armed opponents in the country's bloody seven-year-old civil war, hit back at Trump's "reckless escalation."

- OPCW to deploy -

Trump and other Western leaders have vowed a quick and forceful response to Saturday's alleged gas attack, which rescue workers say killed more than 40 people.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Thursday, while French President Emmanuel Macron is to decide on a response in the coming days, having insisted he does "not want an escalation" and that any response would focus on Syria's chemical capabilities, not on allies of the regime.

As it looked to head off the threat of Western strikes, Syria said it had invited the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which has blamed the regime for previous attacks, to visit the site.

The OPCW said it would "shortly" deploy a fact-finding team to Douma for an investigation, but US officials said they were working from their own information and would not necessarily hold back.

Damascus agreed to hand over its chemical arsenal in 2013, narrowly avoiding American and French air strikes in retaliation for a suspected sarin attack.

That incident, which killed hundreds, also took place in Eastern Ghouta.

How the West might strike Syria
Washington, United States (AFP) April 11, 2018 - US President Donald Trump vowed Wednesday that missiles would be launched at Syria following a suspected chemical attack, virtually ensuring a military strike against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

The question now becomes what the United States, probably with France and Britain, will hit in war-torn Syria, and what are the risks of escalation and miscalculation with Assad allies Russia and Iran.

- What will it target? -

The United States and its allies France and Britain want to send a clear and definitive message to Assad that the future use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated.

One way to ensure Assad cannot use such weapons is to conduct strikes on his chemical infrastructure, including by targeting factories and weapons holding areas.

However, such an action carries risks, including the possibility of unintentionally unleashing a cloud of toxic gas into the environment.

The strike could also target what is left of Assad's air force and air defenses, though the delay between Saturday's attack and an eventual retaliatory strike means he likely will have moved his warplanes to safety.

Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria analyst for the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, told AFP that one potential target would be Dumayr military airport northeast of Damascus, from where regime aircraft used in Saturday's attack may have launched.

Moscow has two air bases on the Syrian coast, Tartus and Hmeimim, protected by S-300 and S-400 air missile defense systems.

- How big will the strike be? -

Trump last year ordered a strike against Assad following a deadly sarin gas attack on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhun.

The US Navy launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles from destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean, targeting Shayrat air base, its aircraft, ammunition supply bunkers, air defense systems and radars.

But the strike was limited and designed to not draw America into the chaos of Syria's bloody civil war.

Since then, the regime is alleged to have repeatedly used chlorine and other chemicals, forcing Pentagon planners to consider broader action.

Cafarella said the United States must decide how far it wants to go in terms of hitting Iranian proxy forces near US positions in eastern Syria, or even targeting Russian-supported facilities.

"The president has publicly stated that he intends to hold not just Assad but his backers accountable as well," she noted.

- How will it be launched? -

A strike against Syria will likely come in the form of missiles, as was the case last year.

The United States would not want to risk putting manned fighters over Syrian air defenses -- a shoot-down would send the conflict spiraling in unforeseeable new directions.

The USS Donald Cook, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, is within easy striking range of Syria, as is a French frigate with its own cruise missiles.

These two ships, possibly aided by a US submarine, are likely to play a role in a strike.

The US also has B-2 bombers at its disposal. These stealth planes were used in 2017 against the Islamic State group in Libya, having flown all the way from America on a 34-hour round trip.

- What are the risks? -

The reaction from Assad backer Moscow is unpredictable and Russia has threatened retaliatory action against the United States if missiles are fired at Syria.

The Russian army on Wednesday accused the White Helmets civil defense organization of staging a chemical weapons attack in Douma, where observers say more than 40 people died in a gas attack.

NBC News reported Tuesday that Russia has learned how to use GPS jammers to limit the capabilities of US drones operating over Syria.

"The US has to be very careful not to accidentally strike Russian targets or kill Russian advisors," Ben Connable, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, told AFP.

"That significantly limits the number of options available to the United States, because the Russians are embedded in many cases with the Syrians."

Connable warned that if the US accidentally or purposefully kills uniformed Russian soldiers, there would potentially be a dangerous escalation between the two nuclear powers.


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