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NUKEWARS
UN nuclear watchdog calls meeting to discuss Ukraine
by AFP Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Feb 27, 2022

The UN nuclear watchdog on Sunday called a meeting of its governing body to discuss the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, days after Moscow's troops took control of the Chernobyl site.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a statement that the meeting of its board of governors would be held at 11 am (1000 GMT) on Wednesday at its Vienna headquarters.

Ukraine has four active nuclear power plants, as well as stores of nuclear waste such as the one at Chernobyl, and there have been fears over the possible consequences should they be damaged in the fighting.

Chernobyl was the site of the worst nuclear accident in history in 1986 and on Thursday the site fell to Russian troops.

Ukrainian authorities said that radiation levels had increased there following the Russian takeover but the IAEA said the levels remained low and did not "pose any danger to the public".

Also on Sunday the IAEA said it had been informed by Ukraine that "missiles hit the site of a radioactive waste disposal facility in Kiev overnight but there were no reports of damage to the building or any indications of a radioactive release".

That incident came a day after Ukrainian officials said an electrical transformer at a similar disposal facility near the northeastern city of Kharkiv had been damaged, but again there had been no reports of a radioactive release.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said such incidents "highlight the very real risk that facilities with radioactive material will suffer damage during the conflict, with potentially severe consequences for human health and the environment".

"Once again, I urgently and strongly appeal to all parties to refrain from any military or other action that could threaten the safety and security of these facilities," he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday said he was putting Russia's nuclear forces on high alert because Western countries were taking "unfriendly" steps against his country in the wake of the invasion.

The IAEA's meeting on Wednesday will come days before a scheduled board of governors meeting and coincides with a crucial phase of efforts to fully restore the 2015 deal on Iran's nuclear programme.

Diplomats from Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran and Russia have been taking part in talks on reviving the accord in Vienna, with their success or failure widely expected to hinge on negotiations in the coming days.

The United States has been taking part in the talks indirectly.

Key questions after Putin's nuclear announcement
Paris (AFP) Feb 27, 2022 - Russian President Vladimir Putin's order on Sunday to place Russia's nuclear forces on high alert is part of a pattern of escalating tensions following his attack on Ukraine, Western experts told AFP, but the move is likely a dangerous new bluff.

- What are deterrence forces? -

Western powers including the US and NATO protested sharply after Putin said in a televised address that the country's nuclear "deterrence forces" were placed "into a special mode of combat service".

The UN called the idea of nuclear weapons' use "inconceivable", while Ukraine's government said that it saw the move as an intimidation attempt, as delegations from both countries prepared to meet for exploratory talks.

Just as in NATO, a portion of Russian nuclear weapons are in constant readiness and "can be launched within 10 minutes," said Marc Finaud, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.

"Either the warheads are already mounted on missiles, or the bombs are already aboard" bombers and submarines, he explained.

In a Friday article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, experts Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda wrote that Russia keeps almost 1,600 warheads deployed.

"Since Russian strategic forces are always on alert, the real question is whether (Putin) has deployed more subs or armed the bombers," Kristensen wrote on Twitter on Sunday.

- Why up the alert level? -

Most analysts suggested that brandishing the nuclear option is a desperate move resulting from Russia's military setbacks since attacking Ukraine on Wednesday.

"Russia is frustrated faced with Ukrainian resistance," said David Khalfa of the Paris-based Jean Jaures Foundation, a left-leaning think-tank.

Rather than a swift victory with armoured assaults claiming swathes of territory, Moscow now faces "urban guerilla warfare, with a high probability of casualties among the Russian soldiers", he added.

Eliot A. Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington said that Russian chiefs had expected an easier campaign.

"The fact that they don't have air superiority now four days into this, that's pretty revealing," he told AFP.

"You are beginning to see the weaknesses on the battlefield... the fact that they haven't been able to occupy a city and hold on to it, that tells you something."

- Why announce publicly? -

With Western aid flowing to Ukraine and economic sanctions hailing down on Russia and its elites, Putin's public declaration could be an attempt to divide his enemies.

The Russian leader "is something of a gambler and a risk-taker," said Cohen. "What he's trying to do is muscle us all psychologically".

Khalfa agreed that "the psychological side of things is vital," with Putin "desiring to deter the West from going any further with economic sanctions".

"Everyone is rallying behind the Ukrainian flag, and he has a will to drive a wedge between the (NATO) alliance's governments and public opinion in Western countries," he said.

But Khalfa also recalled that "in the opinion of everyone who has met Putin, he's isolated himself, locked into paranoid logic... his strategy is impossible to read."

- Dropping Russian doctrine? -

Putin's nuclear menace is all the more puzzling because it departs from established Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine.

In 2020, Putin approved "basic principles" with four cases when Moscow could use nuclear weapons.

They were when ballistic missiles were fired at Russia's or allied territory, when an enemy used nuclear weapons, an attack on a Russian nuclear weapons site, or an attack threatening the existence of the Russian state.

None of those criteria has been met in the current conflict.

What's more, Russia joined the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council in January in signing a document affirming that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought".

Putin's latest verbal salvo shows up "the ambiguity, perhaps even hypocrisy, of this type of declaration," said Finaud.

"If we were to apply the doctrine (of the joint statement) there'd be a massive effort at disarmament. Whereas we see that relatively little has been done in that direction."

For now, "there's still a very high risk of a slip-up or misinterpretation" or even a deliberate manipulation that could trigger a nuclear exchange, he added.


Related Links
Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com
Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com
All about missiles at SpaceWar.com
Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com


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NUKEWARS
Putin 'must understand' NATO is a nuclear alliance: France
Paris (AFP) Feb 24, 2022
President Vladimir Putin needs to understand that NATO is a nuclear alliance, the French foreign minister said Thursday, after the Kremlin chief boasted about Russia's nuclear arsenal as he launched the attack on Ukraine. According to NATO, the nuclear weapons held by members France, the UK and US are a core component of its overall capabilities for deterrence and defence. Emphasising that Russia was still one of the "biggest nuclear powers in the world", Putin had launched the offensive on Ukra ... read more

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