US pullout leaves an Iraq in flux

The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq more than eight years after the invasion leaves a country grappling with political deadlock and vulnerable to regional interference and a domestic insurgency.

Iraq's economy is growing at a rapid clip but is heavily dependent on oil exports, which generate few jobs, and basic services such as water and electricity provision remain poor -- all of which led to protests this year.

The 2003 invasion which ousted dictator Saddam Hussein was followed by eight years in which a US-led coalition not only had to rebuild the military from the ground up, but also establish a brand new political system, with a Shiite-led government having now replaced Saddam's Sunni-dominated regime.

Iraq now has a 325-member parliament and regular elections, and has also built up a sizeable security force.

The pullout, enshrined in a 2008 bilateral pact, is the latest stage in the changing US role in Iraq, from 2003-2004 when American officials ran the country to 2009 when the United Nations mandate ended, and last summer when Washington officially ended combat operations there.

Since the invasion, Iraq has built up forces more than 900,000 strong, including an army that US and Iraqi officials reckon is capable of dealing with internal threats, despite the violence.

Security leaders roundly acknowledge, though, that the country is incapable of defending its borders, airspace and territorial waters.

Baghdad will also lose key US support lines in terms of helicopters, reconnaissance and technical intelligence capabilities.

Iraq's top military officer has noted it will take until 2020 before his forces are completely in control.

Violence has declined dramatically since its peak in 2006 and 2007 amid a sectarian bloodbath, but bombings and shootings remain common and insurgents launched several major attacks this month alone.

Iraq also lacks permanent ministers of interior and defence, positions that have yet to be filled since March 2010 elections.

The lack of a complete cabinet is one of the casualties of Iraq's political deadlock, with little significant legislation having been passed since the elections.

Crucial issues such as reform of the mostly state-controlled economy to regulation and distribution of lucrative energy exports also remain unresolved, to say nothing of a row over a swathe of disputed territory claimed by both the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government.

Despite the various impasses, Iraq's economy and state budget are expanding rapidly thanks mostly to quickly increasing oil exports.

Iraq currently produces 2.9 million barrels of oil per day and is planning to increase its production capacity fourfold by 2017, though various analysts have noted this aim is ambitious.

And though the rise in output coupled with high oil prices have boosted government coffers, unemployment remains high. A UN report this year noted that "sustained prosperity and poverty reduction in Iraq can only be achieved through medium-to-long-term economic diversification."

The lack of jobs -- the World Bank pegs unemployment at around 15 percent -- coupled with a chronic electricity shortfall and endemic corruption spurred tens of thousands of Iraqis to take to the streets in Baghdad and other major cities in February at the start of the Arab Spring.

Little has changed since then with the head of Iraq's anti-corruption watchdog stepping down in September over what he said was a lack of official desire to combat graft. Transparency International ranks Iraq as the eighth most corrupt country worldwide.

Iraq's relations with its neighbours, however, are largely improving, although a question mark hangs over its ties with key countries.

Iran, which has deep trade and tourism relations with Iraq in addition to their shared Shiite-majority heritage, has been widely accused by Washington of being a malevolent actor by influencing politics in Baghdad and training and supplying Shiite militia groups in Iraq, charges that Tehran rejects.

Syria, ruled by an offshoot of Saddam's Baath Party, has been faced with pro-democracy protests since March, and President Bashar al-Assad's brutal crackdown has left more than 4,000 dead, according to the United Nations.

Iraq abstained from an Arab League vote to enforce sweeping sanctions against Syria, and Baghdad has treaded carefully in its public comments.

Baghdad's relations with Washington, though likely to remain close, are set to change as the focus shifts from the US's military involvement to the work of its 16,000-strong diplomatic mission.

The US-Iraq relationship, "long defined by the imperative of security alone, is now giving way to a new, more normal partnership between sovereign nations seeking to build a future together," US Vice-President Joe Biden said on a visit to Iraq this month.