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US war review cites gains against Taliban, Qaeda

NATO: Allies must ensure Afghan progress irreversible
Brussels (AFP) Dec 16, 2010 - The NATO-led mission in Afghanistan must seize on progress shown in a US review of the war to ensure that the gains are irreversible, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Thursday. "The review shows progress in Afghanistan," Rasmussen said in a statement. "Our strategy is sound and we have in place the necessary resources to accomplish it." "Now we have to consolidate those gains and make them irreversible. This is a challenging task, but we are determined to see it through," the head of the 28-nation alliance said.

The police review found that US President Barack Obama's troop surge in Afghanistan has made progress in curbing the Taliban and severely weakening Al-Qaeda, but gains are not yet durable and sustainable. Obama has deployed 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan, raising the number of soldiers in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to around 150,000, in an all-out effort to defeat the insurgency. NATO leaders agreed at a summit last month to begin handing control of the battlefield to Afghan security forces next year with the aim of ceding the lead nationwide by 2014. "As we look back on 2010, we see that we have made hard-fought progress," Rasmussen said. "In 2011, all NATO Allies and their partners in ISAF will continue to work together to make Afghanistan - and our own nations -- safer."

Pace of US drawdown in Afghanistan unclear: Gates
Washington (AFP) Dec 16, 2010 - Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday the pace of a US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan starting next year remained an open question, even as he voiced optimism about the course of the war. Speaking at a press conference on the release of a White House policy review on the war, Gates said progress was "palpable" on the ground but that it was too soon to say how many troops could be pulled out after a target date of July 2011. "In terms of when the troops come out, the president has made clear it'll be conditions-based," Gates said. "In terms of what that line looks like beyond July 2011, I think the answer is, we don't know at this point. "But the hope is that as we progress, that those drawdowns will be able to accelerate."

Nearly 100,000 US troops are stationed in Afghanistan, after President Barack Obama ordered in 30,000 reinforcements a year ago in a bid to turn the tide in the nine-year-old war. Gates said the pace of a gradual withdrawal of US and allied troops would depend in part on efforts to expand and train Afghan security forces, citing major advances in recent months. The White House review said the troop surge had made progress in curbing the Taliban and damaging Al-Qaeda, but warned security gains won in a bloody year were "fragile" and reversible. The review predicted a "responsible reduction" of US forces could begin next July, without indicating how many troops might depart. The administration has said an initial drawdown might involve no more than 2,000 troops.
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Dec 16, 2010
President Barack Obama's Afghan troop surge has made progress in curbing the Taliban and severely weakening Al-Qaeda, but US gains are not yet durable and sustainable, a new policy review said Thursday.

The long-awaited assessment says that some aspects of the high-stakes strategy are working well, after a year of record bloodshed, but many of the advances in the nine-year war remain fragile and reversible.

The report, which Obama is set to unveil later Thursday, says that after a relentless US campaign Al-Qaeda's leadership in Pakistan is weaker than at any stage of the war launched after the September 11 attacks in 2001.

Advertisement: Story continues below Progress will permit a "responsible reduction" to begin of US forces in Afghanistan, currently at nearly 100,000, next July, though a full handover to Afghan security is not envisaged until at least 2014, the review said.

And the always testing US anti-terror alliance with Pakistan has been "substantial" but also "uneven" in the last year, since Obama vowed to forge a new relationship of mutual trust and respect with Islamabad, the report said.

The review, the product of a two-month period of assessment of all aspects of US war strategy, comes nine years into the longest US war abroad, which is taking an ever increasing toll on US troops and Afghan civilians.

Obama called Afghan President Hamid Karzai ahead of the report's release, with both stressing a "focus on the sanctuary of terrorists," the Afghan government said.

The phrase is an apparent reference to Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal belt on the Afghan border, which is a base for Taliban fighters operating in Afghanistan and the global headquarters of Al-Qaeda.

According to an overview of the report the White House released, no major shifts in strategy are planned or needed, though some aspects of the US approach, especially in Pakistan, should be adjusted.

"Most important, Al-Qaeda's senior leadership in Pakistan is weaker and under more sustained pressure than at any other point since it fled Afghanistan in 2001," the document said.

"In Pakistan, we are laying the foundation for a strategic partnership based on mutual respect and trust, through increased dialogue, improved cooperation, and enhanced exchange and assistance programs.

"And in Afghanistan, the momentum achieved by the Taliban in recent years has been arrested in much of the country and reversed in some key areas, although these gains remain fragile and reversible."

"While the strategy is showing progress across all three assessed areas of Al-Qaeda, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the challenge remains to make our gains durable and sustainable."

Obama, for whom the Afghan war is a prime foreign policy challenge and a vital plank of his eventual presidential legacy, was due to directly address the report before reporters at the White House later on Thursday.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates were then to offer a detailed briefing into the war effort.

The overview says that progress in Afghanistan was most evident in gains Afghan and coalition forces were making in clearing Taliban heartlands in Kandahar and Helmand provinces.

But it did not dwell in depth on the dismay among US officials over corruption in Afghanistan and in the Karzai government, revealed by leaked documents quoted in media reports in recent weeks.

US strategy critics insist that it is too ambitious, that Afghan forces will always lack the cohesion needed to keep order, and that no end is in sight for US troops.

The overview released by the White House said US and international forces in Afghanistan had accelerated the growth of the Afghan armed forces, but that "significant developmental challenges remain."

Administration officials had on Wednesday played down two intelligence reports cited by newspapers, which apparently paint a less optimistic picture of the war than that seen in the administration report.

US spy agencies believe the US-led war effort could be doomed unless Pakistan cracks down on militant sanctuaries inside its border, the Los Angeles Times and New York Times reported.

Defense officials say the intelligence accounts are "behind the curve," lacking insights from troops on the frontline in a fluid situation.

"We have agreed to disagree," one official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

Progress in Afghanistan has come at a high cost: more foreign troops -- nearly 700 -- died in 2010 than in any year of the nine-year conflict, and Washington has waged public spats with Kabul and Islamabad.

The war also faces waning public support: 60 percent of Americans surveyed in an ABC News/Washington Post poll out Thursday believe that the war is not worth fighting, up seven points since July.

On a cost-benefit basis, only 34 percent of those polled believe the Afghan war has been worth fighting, down nine points and setting a new low.



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