The next step in Russia's invasion of Ukraine could lead to urban warfare, an immense challenge for even numerically superior armies with deadly consequences for civilians caught up in the fighting, experts say.

Nearly two weeks after the start of the Russian offensive, fears are growing that troops are preparing to launch major moves on Ukrainian cities that have so far escaped their grasp.

Russian artillery and rockets have been striking cities including the capital Kyiv, as well as smaller regional centres such as Kharkiv, Mariupol and Chernihiv.

Inhabitants there, as well as in the southern port of Odessa, another strategic target, are now preparing for possible ground attacks.

"You still see them (Russians) holding back compared to what they could be doing," said Michael Kofman, a specialist on the Russian military at the US-based Center for Naval Analyses (CNA).

"But I'm fairly concerned that that might actually turn into some smaller or lesser version of Grozny," he said, referring to Russia's offensive against the capital of separatist-controlled Chechnya in the 1990s.

"I doubt that they will try to level cities the way they did in Chechnya but nonetheless I think they're going to see heavy destruction if they attempt an urban assault."

Lance Davies, a defence specialist at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst in Britain, said that ground operations in hostile cities were "notoriously difficult to fight."

"Urban operations are the worst nightmare for military forces, commanders and political leaders," he said.

"The likelihood of becoming bogged down in brutal house-to-house fighting is almost guaranteed -- and an assault on Kyiv would require a huge commitment in resources and manpower, but more importantly place Russian forces in close contact with legally protected civilian populations and critical infrastructure."

- Resources -

There remain doubts about whether Russia has the resources needed to capture and hold urban areas in Ukraine, and whether the country and President Vladimir Putin are ready to accept mounting casualties.

A French military source told AFP that the rule of thumb was that attacking forces needed to outnumber defenders 10-1 because the defenders had the advantage of knowing the territory.

Defenders can also benefit from the height advantages from local buildings, with Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles vulnerable to attacks from above.

"It would be suicide to send tanks into urban areas," said Alexander Grinberg from the Israeli think-tank JISS.

"They can't manoeuvre or move around... To conquer cities, you need professional infantry that is very motivated because it is always very difficult."

Between 2016-17, the Iraqi army required eight months to dislodge a few thousand jihadists from the Islamic State group in Mosul after they had seized control of the city.

- History -

John Spencer from the Modern War Institute at the American military academy West Point says that fighting in cities is a relatively modern phenomenon.

In Antiquity and the Middle Ages, armies would lay siege to cities but fighting usually took place at their fortifications and populations were often starved into submission.

After this, battles were conducted in open spaces between armies, rather than in inhabited areas.

"It was not until World War II that Western military formations experienced heavy and frequent fighting in cities," he said.

The mother of such battles was the fight for the Russian city of Stalingrad (now Volgograd) in 1942-43 between Soviet and Nazi forces, which left an estimated two million people dead.

Many Ukrainians have signed up to territorial defence units and are preparing to join the fight.

"Every house, every street, every check point will resist, until death if necessary," the mayor of Kyiv, former boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, wrote on Instagram.

Battleground Ukraine: Day 14 of Russia's invasion
Paris (AFP) March 9, 2022 - On the 14th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces were encircling at least four major cities Wednesday as Kyiv braced for a possible assault.

The capital remains under Ukrainian control but at increasing risk of seeing itself surrounded, with many observers believing Russia is still aiming to capture the city.

Here is a summary of the situation on the ground, based on statements from both sides, Western defence and intelligence sources and international organisations.

- The east -

Kharkiv remains in Ukrainian hands despite increasingly intense Russian bombardment, according to Western sources, and the city is likely now surrounded.

Russian forces are also pressing an offensive through the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions that are backed by Russia, though how far they have penetrated remains unclear.

The city of Sumy in northeast Ukraine is now encircled by Russian troops. Some 5,000 civilians were able to escape on Tuesday on around 60 buses.

- Kyiv and the north -

Kyiv remains under Ukrainian control despite heavy bombardments, though Western observers point to a Russian column of hundreds of vehicles outside the city.

The British defence ministry said that there was fighting northwest of Kyiv but that Russian forces were "failing to make any significant breakthrough".

Russian forces are concentrated 60 kilometres outside Kyiv and are seeking to attack from the east, according to the US Defense Department.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said forces appeared to be concentrating for an assault on Kyiv in the next four days.

Ukrainian forces also retain control of the northern town of Chernihiv, which has seen heavy civilian casualties in recent days and appears to be encircled.

- The south -

Russia has besieged the strategic city of Mariupol, and attempts to evacuate an estimated 200,000 civilians from the city have so far failed.

Taking the city would allow Russia to link forces pushing north from the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea with their forces from the east.

The major port city of Odessa remains under Ukrainian control and has so far been spared fighting. But the US Defense Department said Russian ground forces appeared primed to attack the city, possibly in coordination with an amphibious assault.

Russian forces last week took the southern city of Kherson, just north of Crimea, and there is now heavy fighting for control of the city of Mykolayiv to the northwest. Some sources believe Russia could bypass Mykolayiv and head direct for Odessa.

- The west and centre -

The west of Ukraine remains largely spared from the fighting. The main city of Lviv has become a hub for foreign diplomatic missions and journalists as well as Ukrainians seeking safety or wanting to leave the country.

- Casualties -

The United Nations said Tuesday that it had recorded 474 civilian deaths in Ukraine, including 29 children, though the actual toll could be far higher.

Ukraine and Western sources claim that the Russian death toll is far higher than Moscow has so far admitted to.

Ukraine says more than 12,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, though US estimates put the number of Russians killed at 2,000 to 4,000.

Russia's only official toll, announced last Wednesday, said 498 Russian troops had been killed in Ukraine.

- Refugees -

Some 2.16 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the invasion began, more than half going to Poland, according to the UN refugee agency.

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