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by Staff Writers New York (AFP) Nov 1, 2011
There's still a war on, the planet is said to keep heating up, and a lot of Americans remain upset over things like race and abortion. But don't expect to hear much about any of that in next year's presidential election. In a country with more than nine percent unemployment and deep anger at Wall Street, President Barack Obama and his Republican rival are instead likely to focus overwhelmingly on the economy, analysts say. That holds true in many elections, since pocket-book issues matter most to voters. But the tendency is expected to be especially strong this time, leaving important, even vital questions with little attention. "At the top of that list are issues of foreign policy, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even terrorism generally has fallen into low single digits in terms of being a priority issue for American voters in this election," said Costas Panagopoulos, director for the elections program at Fordham University in New York. Panagopoulos said that while foreign policy remains vital, candidates will most likely stay away unless there's an economics angle -- say the problem of dependence on energy imports or the evolving relationship with China. Leslie Feldman, a political science professor at Hofstra University, where one of the presidential debates will take place, said hot-button social issues like abortion and gay rights are headed for oblivion in this election. "They're going to avoid the gays in the military, marriage equality, all the gay issues: it's not going to come up. The Republicans are staying away from it," she said. Other than the fact that the country is focused on economic policy, another reason social issues might not come up -- especially regarding homosexuals -- is that the crucial bloc of independent voters simply doesn't want to hear. Gay marriage, Feldman said, is no longer sufficiently controversial in many states and "what the Republican nominee has to do to win is to get independents -- and the independents are not necessarily conservative on social issues." "If they hammer on social issues," she added, "they'll alienate the independents." Although Feldman agreed that foreign policy will take a back seat to health care, financial policy and jobs, she said Obama had an opportunity to tout his record on fighting terrorism. "Everyone thought that would be the weak issue for him, but it turns out to be the strongest," she said, mentioning the killing of Osama bin Laden and a daring navy rescue of US sailors kidnapped by Somali pirates. John Mueller, a professor of political science at Ohio State University, said politicians have no appetite for discussing the hard facts about Afghanistan and Iraq. "Basically they've accepted the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq and are in no mood to repeat them," he said. Global warming, a problem that many scientists say threatens the entire planet's future, is also likely to get short thrift during this period of economic uncertainty. "The only solutions that people come up with are ones about spending a fair amount of government money or restricting business and that's not the 'message du jour' by any means," Mueller said. "Spending is not something you want to get into." Another issue showing little sign of prominence so far is race. In the 2008 election, the country watched in fascination as Obama, whose father was black and mother was white, worked his way to the top. This time, a leading Republican candidate, Herman Cain, is African-American and the issue has barely surfaced. "Maybe the United States is finally growing up," Mueller said.
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