US President Donald Trump's delay of steeper tariffs may have won brief respite on Wall Street, but analysts say his actions — which hit China especially hard — already bring the average US effective tariff rate to its highest in over a century.

Besides imposing sweeping new 10 percent tariffs on goods from most US trading partners, Trump has also unleashed steep duties on imports of steel, aluminum and autos since his White House return.

But on Wednesday, he backed off even higher rates on dozens of economies, including the European Union and Asian manufacturing hub Vietnam, following a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — though he doubled down on action against China.

Many goods from the world's second biggest economy now face levies of at least 145 percent — the total additional figure Trump has imposed this year.

"The newly imposed tariffs now affect $2.4 trillion of US imports, or nearly 75 percent," said Erica York of the Tax Foundation.

"Compared to Trump's first term, this is a massive escalation, as his first tariffs affected about $380 billion of US imports or 15 percent," she told AFP.

– 'Highest since 1903' –

Researchers from the Budget Lab at Yale University estimate that "consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 27 percent, the highest since 1903."

"This is only slightly different from where the effective rate was before the late-April 9 announcement," they added.

Even after accounting for consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 18.5 percent, the Budget Lab anticipates. This would be the highest since 1933.

Thibault Denamiel, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimates that the US tariff rate was 2.4 percent in December 2024 — a figure which now stands north of 20 percent.

"That's mostly due to the fact that we still have a 125 percent tariff rate on China," he said, referring to the latest duty Trump imposed on Chinese goods.

The 125 percent tariff, which took effect Thursday, coupled with an earlier 20 percent over China's alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain, putting Trump's new tariffs targeting China this year to 145 percent.

Even a much lower tariff would significantly impact the world's biggest economy, Denamiel said, noting that China is the United States' third most important trading partner.

Analysts have also pointed out that Trump's actions marked the biggest tariff increase since the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, which deepened the Great Depression.

– Shrinking imports –

Trump has claimed the United States was "taking in almost $2 billion a day" from tariffs.

He has referred to them as a means to raise government revenue, boost the country's industrial sectors and to pressure other governments on US priorities.

But experts warn that prohibitively high duties on China will likely cause US imports from the country to contract.

With Chinese tariffs reaching punitive levels, even conservative estimates suggest that China's share of imports "should shrink dramatically," said JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli in a recent note.

If this were to happen, York of the Tax Foundation added that imports from China would end up generating "very little tariff revenue."

"Overall, we estimate the tariffs and announced retaliation will shrink US GDP by 1.0 percent," she said.

With Trump's latest actions, Feroli expects "the drag from trade policy is likely to be somewhat less than before, and thus the prospect of a recession is a closer call."

"However, we still think a contraction in real activity later this year is more likely than not," he added.

Who stands in the crosshairs of Trump's tariffs?
Washington (AFP) April 10, 2025 –

US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs have rocked financial markets and caused a surge in business uncertainty, even as he temporarily held off higher rates for dozens of countries except China.

Here is a rundown of what Trump has implemented in his second presidency, as a trade tussle between Washington and Beijing again escalates.

– China focus –

China faces the harshest of Trump's tariffs, with a staggering rate of 145 percent imposed this year.

A new 125 percent levy on Chinese goods took effect Thursday — a move meant to address practices Washington deemed as unfair.

Coupled with an earlier 20 percent duty this year over China's alleged role in the fentanyl supply chain, the total figure rises to 145 percent.

The steep escalation came after Beijing matched Trump's initial plans for "reciprocal tariffs" to take effect Wednesday.

Washington had tailored rates to specific countries and China faced an 84 percent levy that it has since mirrored.

Trump's fresh tariffs on Chinese imports stack atop those from previous administrations.

– Global tariffs –

While Trump reserved his heaviest blow for rival China, other US allies and partners have not been spared.

On April 5, US trading partners were slapped with a 10 percent tariff. This remains in effect for dozens of economies including the European Union, Japan and Vietnam, which were originally due to see higher rates from Wednesday.

Trump has since paused the steeper levels until July 9.

There are notable exceptions to this duty.

Immediate US neighbors Canada and Mexico, which were earlier targeted over illegal immigration and fentanyl, are not affected by the 10 percent global tariff.

Also off the hook from these are copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber — although these are sectors that Trump is mulling levies on.

Gold and silver, as well as energy commodities, are excluded too.

– Autos, metals –

Trump has also targeted individual business sectors in his second term.

In March, he imposed a 25 percent levy on steel and aluminum imports.

And early this month, a 25 percent tariff on imported autos took effect, with the rate to eventually affect vehicle parts also.

But autos imported under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) can qualify for a lower levy, while compliant auto parts are tariff-free until a process is set up to target non-US content.

– Canada, Mexico –

Canadian and Mexican imports were initially hard hit by 25 percent US tariffs — with a lower rate for Canadian energy.

Trump targeted both neighbors saying they did not do enough on illegal immigration and the flow of illicit drugs across borders.

But he eventually announced exemptions for goods entering his country under the USMCA, covering large swathes of products. Potash, used as fertilizer, got a lower rate as well.

– Retaliation –

Besides its 84 percent duty on US goods, Beijing earlier retaliated with counter tariffs on American agricultural products like poultry, wheat and cotton.

Canada has countered Trump's initial duties and metals tariffs with its own levies on some Can$60 billion in US goods, including steel and computers.

Although the EU adopted countermeasures against US metals tariffs, the bloc said Thursday it would put the planned duties — hitting more than 20 billion euros ($22.3 billion) in US goods — on hold for 90 days.

– Other threats –

Beyond expansive tariffs on Chinese products, Trump recently ordered the closure of a duty-free exemption for low-value parcels from the country as well. This will likely raise the cost of importing items like clothing and small electronics.

Trump has opened the door for 25 percent tariffs too on goods from countries importing Venezuelan oil. He has threatened similar "secondary tariffs" involving Russian oil.

He has raised the possibility of tariffs on sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors also, and ordered investigations into copper and lumber imports.

Washington meanwhile has an ongoing investigation into China's practices in the maritime and shipbuilding sector, which could bring new punitive action.